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Free AccessUS Data Forecast Focus:July Payrolls Seen +181,000; 4.3% Rate>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 181,000
in July after a stronger-than-expected 222,000 gain in June. The
unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.3% after rebounding to
4.4% in June.
Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in the
previous month. MNI's Reality Check feature suggested that companies are
experiencing labor shortages that are leading to higher salaries in
some industries. Due to a large 0.4% rise in hourly earnings in July
2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to be trimmed barring
upward revisions to the previous two months. The average workweek is
expected to hold steady at 34.5.
Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in June, as gains were
fairly widespread across the categories. Past data for July show over-
and underestimates evenly split over last 10 years.
Forecast: Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17
Median 200 175 195 183 170 181
Range High 250 210 225 231 210 220
Range Low 165 125 165 155 138 170
Actual original result 235 98 211 138 222 #N/A
vs med. forecast -35 77 -16 45 -52 #N/A
Historical comparison: Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16
Median 100 100 185 230 225 188
Range High 125 165 205 255 250 200
Range Low 50 75 160 200 200 140
Actual original result 117 163 162 209 215 255
vs med. forecast -17 -63 23 21 10 -67
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17
ISM Mfg Employment 54.2 58.9 52.0 53.5 57.2 55.2
ISM Nonmfg Employment 55.2 51.6 51.4 57.8 55.8 53.6
Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful 26.9 31.8 30.3 30.0 32.0 34.1
Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap 7.0 12.8 10.9 11.7 13.6 16.1
Net change from survey week:
Initial claims +6k +14k -18k -10k +9k -8k
4-week mvg avg -1k +1k -4k -2k +4k -1k
Continuing claims -26k -5k -65k -63k +21k +20k
Strikers (Net Chg thsnd) UNCH UNCH 1.7 UNCH UNCH UNCH
ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd) 249 255 148 233 191 178
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.