US Data Forecast Focus:July Payrolls Seen +181,000; 4.3% Rate>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 181,000 

in July after a stronger-than-expected 222,000 gain in June. The 

unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.3% after rebounding to 

4.4% in June. 

     Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in the 

previous month. MNI's Reality Check feature suggested that companies are 

experiencing labor shortages that are leading to higher salaries in 

some industries. Due to a large 0.4% rise in hourly earnings in July 

2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to be trimmed barring 

upward revisions to the previous two months. The average workweek is 

expected to hold steady at 34.5. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in June, as gains were 

fairly widespread across the categories. Past data for July show over- 

and underestimates evenly split over last 10 years. 

Forecast:                 Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

 Median                      200     175     195     183     170     181

 Range High                  250     210     225     231     210     220

 Range Low                   165     125     165     155     138     170

Actual original result       235      98     211     138     222    #N/A

 vs med. forecast            -35      77     -16      45     -52    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                      100     100     185     230     225     188

 Range High                  125     165     205     255     250     200

 Range Low                    50      75     160     200     200     140

Actual original result       117     163     162     209     215     255

 vs med. forecast            -17     -63      23      21      10     -67

                          Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

ISM Mfg Employment          54.2    58.9    52.0    53.5    57.2    55.2

ISM Nonmfg Employment       55.2    51.6    51.4    57.8    55.8    53.6

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful      26.9    31.8    30.3    30.0    32.0    34.1

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   7.0    12.8    10.9    11.7    13.6    16.1

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims              +6k    +14k    -18k    -10k     +9k     -8k

  4-week mvg avg             -1k     +1k     -4k     -2k     +4k     -1k

 Continuing claims          -26k     -5k    -65k    -63k    +21k    +20k

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)    UNCH    UNCH     1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)   249     255     148     233     191     178

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]