US Data Forecast Focus: March Retail Sales Seen +0.3%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT Apr 16/07:35 EST Apr 16

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% in March after a

after weak readings in the previous two months. Analysts expect the tax cuts

enacted earlier in the year will start to filter into spending. Seasonally

adjusted industry motor vehicle sales rose solidly in March, particularly for

trucks, while AAA reported that gasoline prices declined modestly in mid-March

from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise only 0.1% excluding

motor vehicles after February's 0.2% gain.

     Analysts sharply overestimated retail sales growth in both January and

February, both overall and excluding motor vehicles. Misses for past March data

have been mixed, but there is clear tendency of overestimates in the most recent

three years.

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                                  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.0     0.3     0.4     0.2     0.4     0.3

Range High                           0.4     0.5     0.7     0.3     0.5     0.4

Range Low                           -0.3     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.3

Actual result                        0.2     0.8     0.4    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.5     0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                               0.3    -0.1     0.7     1.1    -0.1    -0.3

Range High                           0.6     0.3     1.2     1.2     0.4     0.2

Range Low                            0.1    -0.4     0.1     0.6    -0.8    -0.6

Actual result                        0.8    -0.4     1.1     0.9    -0.3    -0.2

Median-Actual                       -0.5     0.3    -0.4     0.2     0.2    -0.1

                                  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.7     0.3     0.5     0.5     0.1

Range High                           0.4     0.9     0.6     0.8     0.7     0.4

Range Low                           -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.0

Actual result:                       0.1     1.0     0.4     0.0     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.5     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                               0.6     0.0     0.4     0.6     0.4     0.1

Range High                           0.9     0.3     0.8     0.7     0.7     0.4

Range Low                            0.3    -0.3     0.2     0.5     0.0    -0.2

Actual result                        0.8    -0.4     0.7     0.4     0.2     0.0

Median-Actual                       -0.2     0.4    -0.3     0.2     0.2     0.1

                                          Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,

saar                                         4.3     4.1     3.8     3.9     3.8

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,

saar                                         9.0     9.5     9.0     8.9     9.5

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.561   2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A    -4.1     1.4     3.2    -1.8

Consumer confidence                        128.6   123.1   124.3   130.0   127.7

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                  13.3    13.0    13.6    12.9    12.1

Home                                         6.5     7.4     6.0     6.4     5.5

Major appliance                             53.4    59.3    50.1    52.1    48.9

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]