US Data Forecast Focus: September CPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT Oct 11/07:35 EST Oct 11

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to post another 0.2% gain, same as

in August. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from August, which

could reduce seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a sharp gain in the

previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following an

softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in August.

     Analysts overestimated both overall and core CPI in August, even as energy

prices surged. Price declines for apparel and medical care, and a flat reading

for motor vehicle sales were key factors. For September CPI, analysts' misses

have been mixed in direction, but relatively small, as usual.

                                 Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

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Overall CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

Range High                          0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.2

Range Low                           0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Actual result                       0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                              0.5     0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.6

Range High                          0.6     0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.4     0.7

Range Low                           0.2     0.1    -0.2    -0.3     0.2     0.5

Actual result                       0.6     0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.5

Median-Actual                      -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1

                                 Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

Core CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3

Range Low                           0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result                       0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.5     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                           0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                       0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1

Median-Actual                       0.1     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.1

Change in:

                                         May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded

($/gal)                                   2.813   2.915   2.862   2.857   2.843

mo/mo pct change                           #N/A     3.6    -1.8    -0.2    -0.5

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                  79.5    76.8    73.2    72.1    66.9

ISM Nonmfg Index Price

Index                                      64.3    60.7    63.4    62.8    64.2

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]