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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

Release for:  Third Quarter (third estimate)
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Percentage Points at Annual Rate unless otherwise noted
                                  3Q-16  4Q-16  1Q-17  2Q-17  3Q-17
Real GDP (SAAR)                     2.8    1.8    1.2    3.1    3.2
Percentage Points at Annual Rate:
Personal consumptn expenditures    1.92   1.99   1.32   2.24   1.49
 Goods PCE                         0.69   1.03   0.15   1.16   0.97
 Durable goods                     0.68   0.67  -0.01   0.56   0.63
  Motor vehicles and parts         0.36   0.32  -0.26   0.02   0.29
  Furniture and household equip    0.10   0.09   0.08   0.15   0.15
  Recreation, vehicles             0.16   0.22   0.21   0.26   0.02
  Other                            0.06   0.04  -0.03   0.12   0.17
 Nondurable goods                  0.01   0.35   0.16   0.61   0.34
  Food for off-premises use        0.09   0.21   0.06   0.01   0.16
  Clothing and shoes               0.03   0.03  -0.08   0.20  -0.01
  Gasoline, fuel oil,
   other energy goods             -0.05  -0.03  -0.10   0.12  -0.04
  Other                           -0.06   0.15   0.28   0.28   0.22
 Services PCE                      1.23   0.97   1.17   1.08   0.52
  Household consumption spending   1.08   0.98   1.11   1.11   0.65
  Housing and utilities            0.27  -0.11  -0.04   0.42   0.00
  Health Care                      0.13   0.62   0.24   0.15   0.52
  Transportation Services          0.11   0.06   0.04   0.01  -0.04
  Recreation Services              0.12   0.07   0.12   0.04   0.01
  Food Services, accomodations     0.07   0.00   0.12  -0.03   0.09
  Financial Services, insurance    0.13   0.07   0.40   0.14   0.13
  Other services                   0.25   0.27   0.23   0.38  -0.06
Final consumption of nonprofits
  serving households               0.15  -0.01   0.06  -0.04  -0.13
Gross output of nonprofit instit   0.19   0.36   0.12  -0.23   0.21
Less: Receipts from sales of
 goods and services by nonprofit   0.04   0.38   0.06  -0.19   0.34
Gross private domestic investmnt   0.40   1.34  -0.20   0.64   1.19
 Fixed investment                  0.25   0.28   1.27   0.53   0.40
  Nonresidential                   0.42   0.02   0.86   0.82   0.58
   Structures                      0.37  -0.06   0.39   0.20  -0.21
   Equipment and software         -0.12   0.10   0.24   0.48   0.58
    Information processing
     equipment                     0.10   0.05   0.13   0.17   0.17
      Computers and peripheral
       equipment                   0.00  -0.01   0.01   0.15   0.10
      Other                        0.11   0.06   0.11   0.02   0.07
    Industrial equipment           0.03   0.07   0.09   0.14   0.09
    Transportation equipment      -0.23  -0.05  -0.04   0.02   0.21
    Other                         -0.03   0.04   0.06   0.15   0.11
       Intellectual property
             products              0.17  -0.02   0.23   0.15   0.21
                Software           0.12   0.04   0.09   0.13   0.15
                Research and dev   0.02  -0.07   0.13   0.02   0.05
                Entertainment, literary
                   and artistic    0.03   0.02   0.01   0.00   0.00
  Residential                     -0.18   0.26   0.41  -0.30  -0.18
 Change in private inventories     0.16   1.06  -1.46   0.12   0.79
  Farm                            -0.05  -0.09   0.13  -0.04   0.07
  Nonfarm                          0.20   1.15  -1.59   0.15   0.72
Net exports, goods and services    0.36  -1.61   0.22   0.21   0.36
 Exports                           0.74  -0.47   0.85   0.42   0.25
  Goods                            0.60  -0.27   0.81   0.18   0.15
  Services                         0.13  -0.19   0.04   0.25   0.10
 Imports                          -0.37  -1.14  -0.63  -0.22   0.11
  Goods                           -0.14  -1.05  -0.56  -0.16   0.03
  Services                        -0.24  -0.09  -0.07  -0.06   0.07
Govt consumption expenditures
 and gross investment              0.09   0.03  -0.11  -0.03   0.12
 Federal                           0.11  -0.03  -0.16   0.13   0.09
  National defense                 0.10  -0.13  -0.13   0.18   0.09
   Consumption                     0.10  -0.16  -0.21   0.02   0.09
   Gross investment                0.00   0.03   0.08   0.16   0.00
  Nondefense                       0.01   0.10  -0.03  -0.05  -0.01
   Consumption                    -0.01   0.06  -0.07  -0.05   0.06
   Gross investment                0.01   0.03   0.04   0.00  -0.06
 State and Local                  -0.02   0.06   0.05  -0.16   0.03
   Consumption                     0.17   0.01   0.04   0.09   0.08
   Gross investment               -0.18   0.05   0.01  -0.25  -0.05
       ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDT$]