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US DATA: GDP Revisions And Scope For Core PCE Rounding Surprise – 0830ET

US DATA
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The second release for Q3 national accounts comes at 0830ET along with jobless claims and preliminary durable goods amongst others. It will include revisions for real GDP growth and its breakdown along with the first estimate for GDI. 

  • Bloomberg consensus doesn’t see a reason to diverge from the 2.8% annualized for real GDP growth flagged in the advance release, another robust quarter after the 3.0% in Q2.
  • The advance release indicated that domestic demand played a greater role than was the case in Q2 (adding 3.6pps to quarterly GDP growth vs 2.8pps in Q2) and we’ll look to see if that’s still the case after revisions. Private consumption (seen unrevised at 3.7%) can give a quick idea here with what’s currently estimated to have been its strongest quarter since 1Q23.
  • We also watch for the first release of Gross Domestic Income in Q3. Recall that GDI growth had been notably lagging GDP growth before a large shift higher in the comprehensive revisions in September, something that multiple FOMC members have since noted.
  • The quarterly data will also show revisions for core PCE inflation. No material revisions are expected (seen staying at 2.2% annualized after 2.8% in Q2) although it can easily round lower with the latest rate actually 2.16%. We’ll touch more on the subsequent monthly PCE released, unusually released at 1000ET today, in the following re-upped bullet. 
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The second release for Q3 national accounts comes at 0830ET along with jobless claims and preliminary durable goods amongst others. It will include revisions for real GDP growth and its breakdown along with the first estimate for GDI. 

  • Bloomberg consensus doesn’t see a reason to diverge from the 2.8% annualized for real GDP growth flagged in the advance release, another robust quarter after the 3.0% in Q2.
  • The advance release indicated that domestic demand played a greater role than was the case in Q2 (adding 3.6pps to quarterly GDP growth vs 2.8pps in Q2) and we’ll look to see if that’s still the case after revisions. Private consumption (seen unrevised at 3.7%) can give a quick idea here with what’s currently estimated to have been its strongest quarter since 1Q23.
  • We also watch for the first release of Gross Domestic Income in Q3. Recall that GDI growth had been notably lagging GDP growth before a large shift higher in the comprehensive revisions in September, something that multiple FOMC members have since noted.
  • The quarterly data will also show revisions for core PCE inflation. No material revisions are expected (seen staying at 2.2% annualized after 2.8% in Q2) although it can easily round lower with the latest rate actually 2.16%. We’ll touch more on the subsequent monthly PCE released, unusually released at 1000ET today, in the following re-upped bullet.