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US DATA: GDPNow Points To Real GDP Growth Overshooting FOMC Forecast

US DATA
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  • It’s obviously very early days for tracking but the initial estimate from the Atlanta Fed puts Q4 real GDP growth at 2.66% annualized, fresh from accurately predicting the 2.8% in yesterday’s Q3 advance.
  • If that materializes it would see real GDP growth of 2.5% Y/Y in Q4, implying a notable overshoot of the Fed’s forecast from the September SEP.
  • The median dot looked for 2.0% Y/Y for Q4 in a seemingly closely held view with a central tendency range of 1.9-2.1% (excludes three highest and lowest estimates). In fact, it would be right at the top of the 1.8-2.6% range of all FOMC members.
  • The FOMC of course won’t be updating forecasts at next week’s meeting - the next SEP will be in December - but it gives an indication of how the growth outlook has surprised positively over the past six weeks. 
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  • It’s obviously very early days for tracking but the initial estimate from the Atlanta Fed puts Q4 real GDP growth at 2.66% annualized, fresh from accurately predicting the 2.8% in yesterday’s Q3 advance.
  • If that materializes it would see real GDP growth of 2.5% Y/Y in Q4, implying a notable overshoot of the Fed’s forecast from the September SEP.
  • The median dot looked for 2.0% Y/Y for Q4 in a seemingly closely held view with a central tendency range of 1.9-2.1% (excludes three highest and lowest estimates). In fact, it would be right at the top of the 1.8-2.6% range of all FOMC members.
  • The FOMC of course won’t be updating forecasts at next week’s meeting - the next SEP will be in December - but it gives an indication of how the growth outlook has surprised positively over the past six weeks.