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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic
indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section presents the key
elements behind the median forecasts.
Treasury Statement for January($ billions)
Wednesday, February 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
Treasury Budget $8.7b -- -$13.3b -$208.8
Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $8.7 billion budget balance in
January, up from December's -$13.3 billion gap.
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)
Thursday, February 13 at 8:30 a.m. EST
Actual:
Median: Feb08 Feb01 Jan25
Claims: 210k -- 202k 216k
Comments: Jobless claims for the week ending February 8 are expected to come in
at 210,000, close to the 211,750 four-week moving average identified by the
Department of Labor in its most recent jobless claims report.
Consumer Price Index for December(percent change)
Thursday, February 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
CPI +0.2% -- +0.2% +0.3%
CPI Core +0.2% -- +0.1% +0.2%
Comments: U.S. consumer inflation likely held steady in January, with
preliminary estimates calling for a 0.2% increase, mirroring December's
weaker-than-expected pace. Gasoline prices fell in January, which should hold
down m/m headline inflation growth. Core inflation is also expected to rise 0.2%
for a fourth straight month in January. The three-month annualized rate of core
inflation rose to 2.5% in December, the highest since March.
Retail Sales (percent change)
Friday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
Retail Sales +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.2%
Retail ex mv +0.3% -- +0.7% +0.1%
Retail ex mv+gas +0.3% -- +0.5% flat
Comments: U.S. retail sales should rise 0.3% in December, the same rate of
increase as December. Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales are expected
to rise 0.3% after a 0.7% hike in December. in November. A surprisingly strong
January jobs report and a slight acceleration in wage gains and steady consumer
confidence should support another positive month for retailers.
Import/Export Prices for January(percent change)
Friday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
Import Price Index -0.2% -- +0.3% +0.2%
Export Price Index -0.1% -- -0.2% +0.2%
Comments: The import price index is expected to decrease -0.2% while the export
price index is expected to fall by -0.1%.
Industrial Production for January(percent change)
Friday, February 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET
Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
Industrial Production -0.2% -- -0.3% +0.8%
Capacity Utilization 76.8% -- 77.0% 77.4%
Comments: Industrial production for January is expected to decline for the
second straight month, dropping -0.2%, while capacity utilization remains nearly
flat at 76.8%.
University of Michigan Survey for February(preliminary)
Friday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Feb20(p) Jan20 Dec19
Consumer Sent 99.4 -- 96.8 99.3
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to reach 99.4, a +2.6 point
increase from January's 96.8 reading.
Business Inventories for December(percent change)
Friday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Dec19 Nov19 Oct19
Inventories +0.1% -- -0.2% +0.2%
Comments: Business inventories for November are expected to increase by +0.1%.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.