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US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic
indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section presents the key
elements behind the median forecasts.
     Treasury Statement for January($ billions)
 Wednesday, February 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET                         Actual:  
                   Median:                               Jan20   Dec19   Nov19  
Treasury Budget     $8.7b                                  --  -$13.3b -$208.8
Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $8.7 billion budget balance in
January, up from December's -$13.3 billion gap.
     Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)
 Thursday, February 13 at 8:30 a.m. EST                        
                                                           Actual:
                   Median:                           Feb08  Feb01 Jan25      
Claims:              210k                               --   202k  216k    
Comments: Jobless claims for the week ending February 8 are expected to come in
at 210,000, close to the 211,750 four-week moving average identified by the
Department of Labor in its most recent jobless claims report.
     Consumer Price Index for December(percent change)
 Thursday, February 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:
                   Median:                           Jan20  Dec19  Nov19  
CPI                 +0.2%                               --  +0.2%  +0.3%  
CPI Core            +0.2%                               --  +0.1%  +0.2%  
Comments: U.S. consumer inflation likely held steady in January, with
preliminary estimates calling for a 0.2% increase, mirroring December's
weaker-than-expected pace. Gasoline prices fell in January, which should hold
down m/m headline inflation growth. Core inflation is also expected to rise 0.2%
for a fourth straight month in January. The three-month annualized rate of core
inflation rose to 2.5% in December, the highest since March.
     Retail Sales (percent change)
 Friday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:               
                  Median:                           Jan20  Dec19  Nov19  
Retail Sales       +0.3%                               --  +0.3%  +0.2%  
Retail ex mv       +0.3%                               --  +0.7%  +0.1%  
Retail ex mv+gas   +0.3%                               --  +0.5%   flat  
     Comments: U.S. retail sales should rise 0.3% in December, the same rate of
increase as December. Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales are expected
to rise 0.3% after a 0.7% hike in December. in November. A surprisingly strong
January jobs report and a slight acceleration in wage gains and steady consumer
confidence should support another positive month for retailers.
     Import/Export Prices for January(percent change)
 Friday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:
                    Median:                          Jan20  Dec19   Nov19    
Import Price Index   -0.2%                              --  +0.3%   +0.2%  
Export Price Index   -0.1%                              --  -0.2%   +0.2%  
Comments: The import price index is expected to decrease -0.2% while the export
price index is expected to fall by -0.1%.
     Industrial Production for January(percent change)
 Friday, February 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET                            
                                                              Actual:        
                          Median:                       Jan20  Dec19  Nov19  
Industrial Production      -0.2%                           --  -0.3%  +0.8%  
Capacity Utilization       76.8%                           --  77.0%  77.4%  
Comments: Industrial production for January is expected to decline for the
second straight month, dropping -0.2%, while capacity utilization remains nearly
flat at 76.8%.
     University of Michigan Survey for February(preliminary)
 Friday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                            Actual:
                          Median:                       Feb20(p)  Jan20  Dec19  
Consumer Sent               99.4                           --      96.8   99.3  
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to reach 99.4, a +2.6 point
increase from January's 96.8 reading.
     Business Inventories for December(percent change)
 Friday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                             Actual:
                 Median:                                  Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  
Inventories       +0.1%                                      --  -0.2%  +0.2%  
Comments: Business inventories for November are expected to increase by +0.1%.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]

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