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Trend Condition Remains Bearish

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 27/17:06 EST May 27
     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
Durable Goods Orders (percent change)
 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am ET                        
                          Median                      Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     
New orders                -19.3%                         -- -14.4%  +1.1%    
Ex trans                  -15.0%                         --  -0.2%  -0.7%   
          Comments: The April durable goods report is expected to show new
dropping by -19.3% in what would constitute the biggest drop in the history of
the Census Bureau's monthly report. Excluding transportation, new durable goods
orders for April are expected to contract by -15.0%, which would also mark the
largest contraction ever recorded by the measure.
Q1 GDP (second estimate)
 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET)                             Actual        
                          Median                         Q1(p)   Q4     Q3   
GDP                        -4.8%                          --  +2.1%  +2.1%      
Price Index                +1.3%                          --  +1.3%  +1.8%   
     Comments: U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to remain unchanged from its first
estimate, dropping by -4.8%. The GDP price index is also expected to remain
unchanged from the first estimate, climbing by +1.3%. Uncertainty stemming from
the virus has caused consumer spending and business investment to weaken
dramatically with exports declining as countries began to enforce trade
restrictions on food and medical supplies in March.
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET)                     
                   Median                          May23  May16  May09       
Claims             2.100m                             -- 2.438m 2.981m     
     Comments: Jobless claims filed through May 23 should fall to 2.100 million
after reaching 2.438 million in the Labor Department's weekly unemployment
insurance report last week. Another 2.2 million unemployed workers filed for
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance last week, bringing the total initial claims
level to 4.4 million for the week ending May 16. While nearly all states have
started to reopen their economies, real-time data suggests there has only been a
"modest improvement to date," arguing for "persistent pain in labor markets,"
according to analysts at Bank of America, meaning initial claims should remain
highly elevated for longer.
Advanced Goods Trade Gap (billions)  
 Friday, May 29 at 8:30am (ET)                             
              Median                                  Apr20   Mar20   Feb20  
Gap          -$65.0b                                     --  -64.4b -$59.7b
     Comments: The advanced goods trade gap (census basis) is expected to widen
to -$65.0 billion, in what would be the second straight month of increases.     
Personal Income (percent change)
 Friday, May 29 at 08:30am ET               
                          Median                       Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    
Personal income            -6.0%                          --  -2.0%  +0.6%    
Total Price index          -0.6%                          --  -0.3%  +0.1%    
Core PCE price index       -0.3%                          --  -0.1%  +0.2%    
     Comments: Personal income in April is expected to drop by -6.0% in what
would be the largest m/m contraction ever recorded since the report's inception
in 1959. April's downturn should mark the second contraction since November 2015
showing an acceleration in declining personal income after March's -2.0%
decrease. The total price index is also expected to drop by -0.6% with the core
PCE price index registering a -0.3% decline.
MNI Chicago PMI (index)
 Friday, May 29 at 9:45am (ET)                         
                    Median                             May20  Apr20  Mar20      
Index                 40.0                                --   35.4   47.8    
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI for May is expected to climb to 40.0, up from
April's 35.4 reading, which was the lowest reading since March 2009 when the
index registered 33.0.
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April (final)
 Friday, May 29 at 10:00am (ET)
                          Median                     May20(f) Apr20  Mar20   
Consumer Sent               74.0                          --   71.8   89.1 
Comments: U.S. consumer sentiment likely increased in May, with markets
expecting the University of Michigan's measure to rise to 74 from 71.8 in April,
slightly higher than May's preliminary estimate of 73.7. This would mark a 2.2
point increase from April's 71.8 reading, which was the lowest reading since
December 2011 when the index reached 69.9. Consumer sentiment has slipped in
recent months as the Covid-19 pandemic forced businesses across the globe to
temporarily, and in some cases permanently, close their doors. But sentiment
improved early this month as coronavirus relief measures enforced under the
CARES Act improved households' finances, University of Michigan researchers
wrote in May's preliminary report.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: