US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 27/17:06 EST May 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Durable Goods Orders (percent change)

 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am ET                        

                                                            Actual        

                          Median                      Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     

New orders                -19.3%                         -- -14.4%  +1.1%    

Ex trans                  -15.0%                         --  -0.2%  -0.7%   

          Comments: The April durable goods report is expected to show new

orders

dropping by -19.3% in what would constitute the biggest drop in the history of

the Census Bureau's monthly report. Excluding transportation, new durable goods

orders for April are expected to contract by -15.0%, which would also mark the

largest contraction ever recorded by the measure.

Q1 GDP (second estimate)

 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET)                             Actual        

                          Median                         Q1(p)   Q4     Q3   

GDP                        -4.8%                          --  +2.1%  +2.1%      

Price Index                +1.3%                          --  +1.3%  +1.8%   

     Comments: U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to remain unchanged from its first

estimate, dropping by -4.8%. The GDP price index is also expected to remain

unchanged from the first estimate, climbing by +1.3%. Uncertainty stemming from

the virus has caused consumer spending and business investment to weaken

dramatically with exports declining as countries began to enforce trade

restrictions on food and medical supplies in March.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                         Actual

                   Median                          May23  May16  May09       

Claims             2.100m                             -- 2.438m 2.981m     

     Comments: Jobless claims filed through May 23 should fall to 2.100 million

after reaching 2.438 million in the Labor Department's weekly unemployment

insurance report last week. Another 2.2 million unemployed workers filed for

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance last week, bringing the total initial claims

level to 4.4 million for the week ending May 16. While nearly all states have

started to reopen their economies, real-time data suggests there has only been a

"modest improvement to date," arguing for "persistent pain in labor markets,"

according to analysts at Bank of America, meaning initial claims should remain

highly elevated for longer.

Advanced Goods Trade Gap (billions)  

 Friday, May 29 at 8:30am (ET)                             

                                                             Actual        

              Median                                  Apr20   Mar20   Feb20  

Gap          -$65.0b                                     --  -64.4b -$59.7b

     Comments: The advanced goods trade gap (census basis) is expected to widen

to -$65.0 billion, in what would be the second straight month of increases.     

Personal Income (percent change)

 Friday, May 29 at 08:30am ET               

                                                             Actual        

                          Median                       Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

Personal income            -6.0%                          --  -2.0%  +0.6%    

Total Price index          -0.6%                          --  -0.3%  +0.1%    

Core PCE price index       -0.3%                          --  -0.1%  +0.2%    

     Comments: Personal income in April is expected to drop by -6.0% in what

would be the largest m/m contraction ever recorded since the report's inception

in 1959. April's downturn should mark the second contraction since November 2015

showing an acceleration in declining personal income after March's -2.0%

decrease. The total price index is also expected to drop by -0.6% with the core

PCE price index registering a -0.3% decline.

MNI Chicago PMI (index)

 Friday, May 29 at 9:45am (ET)                         

                                                             Actual

                    Median                             May20  Apr20  Mar20      

Index                 40.0                                --   35.4   47.8    

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI for May is expected to climb to 40.0, up from

April's 35.4 reading, which was the lowest reading since March 2009 when the

index registered 33.0.

University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April (final)

 Friday, May 29 at 10:00am (ET)

                                                             Actual

                          Median                     May20(f) Apr20  Mar20   

Consumer Sent               74.0                          --   71.8   89.1 

Comments: U.S. consumer sentiment likely increased in May, with markets

expecting the University of Michigan's measure to rise to 74 from 71.8 in April,

slightly higher than May's preliminary estimate of 73.7. This would mark a 2.2

point increase from April's 71.8 reading, which was the lowest reading since

December 2011 when the index reached 69.9. Consumer sentiment has slipped in

recent months as the Covid-19 pandemic forced businesses across the globe to

temporarily, and in some cases permanently, close their doors. But sentiment

improved early this month as coronavirus relief measures enforced under the

CARES Act improved households' finances, University of Michigan researchers

wrote in May's preliminary report.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]