US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 29/17:06 EST May 29

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

ISM Manufacturing Index (index)

 Monday, June 1 at 10:00am (ET)

                                                          Actual

                                 Median             May20  Apr20  Mar20   

Activity Index                     43.5                --   41.5   49.1       

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb to 43.5 while

remaining in contractionary territory amid ongoing nationwide shutdowns and

global supply chain disruptions. Last month's reading marked the lowest reading

since April 2009, during the global financial crisis, when the index reached

39.9.

Construction Spending (percentage change)

 Monday, June 1 at 10:00am (ET)

                                                          Actual

                                 Median             Apr20  Mar20  Feb20  

Total Spending                    -6.0%                --   0.9%  -1.3% 

     Comments: Construction spending for April is expected to show a -6.0% drop,

which would mark the largest m/m decrease in the history of the Census Bureau's

report, which stretches back over a half-century.

Factory Orders (percent change) 

 Wednesday, June 3 at 10:00am (ET)                   

                                                          Actual 

               Median                               Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

New Orders     -14.0%                                  -- -10.4%   flat     

Ex-Transport       --                                  --  -3.6%  -0.9% 

Comments: New factory orders are expected to drop -14.0% in April, which would

mark the largest m/m drop in the history of the report following last month's

historic drop. New orders for durable goods dropped by -17.2% this past week,

according to the advance report released by the Census Bureau.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

 Wednesday, June 3 at 10:00am (ET)                        

                                                           Actual 

               Median                                May20  Apr20  Mar20     

ISM NMI          44.1                                   --   41.8   52.5     

     Comments: The ISM Non-manufacturing index is expected to climb to 44.1,

remaining in contractionary territory for the second straight month and only the

second month in contractionary territory since December 2009. The April reading

marked the index's lowest level since March 2009 when it registered at 40.1.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                           Actual

                   Median                            May30  May23  May16       

Claims             1.800m                               -- 2.123m 2.446m     

     Comments: The jobless claims surge is slowly subsiding, but it remains at

record-high levels with next week's new claims expected to reach 1.800 million.

In the wake of weakened consumer demand, lockdowns, and continued social

distancing, close to 40 million claims have already been filed. New hires in

mid-May could alleviate some of the pressure on new jobless claims as some

states began to relax social-distancing measures during that period.

Trade in Goods and Services (deficit, billions) 

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                            

                                                           Actual 

               Median                              Apr20    Mar20    Feb20      

Trade Gap     -$45.2b                                 --  -$44.4b  -$39.8b     

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to increase slightly to

-$45.2 billion in April from -$44.4 billion in March. The advance report showed

the goods trade gap grew to -$69.7 billion in April after reaching a revised

March reading of -$65.0 billion, outpacing market expectations of a -$65.0

billion gap. The growing advance goods deficit was driven by a -25.2% m/m drop

in exports, bolstered by manufacturing downtime, alongside a -14.3% m/m decline

in imports given continued, multi-week lags in international shipping.  

Final Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                          

                                                           Actual

                   Median                             1Q(f)  4Q(f)   3Q(f) 

Productivity        -2.5%                              --   +1.2%  -0.3%  

Unit Labor Cost     +4.8%                              --   +0.9%  +0.2%  

     Comments: Final non-farm productivity is expected to remain unchanged from

preliminary estimates, showing a -2.5% drop in productivity and a +4.8% increase

in unit labor cost. The preliminary report released in early May was the largest

quarterly drop since the 4Q 2015 when output per hour fell -2.9% percent. The

preliminary report also showed unit labor costs rising at their highest rate

since 1Q 2019 when they increased by +5.7%. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands and millions) 

 Friday, June 5 at 8:30am (ET)                                

                                                            Actual 

                 Median                             May20    Apr20    Mar20     

Payrolls        -7.575m                                -- -20.500m  -0.881m     

Private Jobs    -7.500m                                -- -19.520m  -0.853m     

Jobless Rate      19.6%                                --    14.7%     4.4% 

Avg Hrly Earnings  1.0%                                --    +4.7%    +0.5%    

Avg Wkly Hrs       34.3                                --     34.2     34.1    

     Comments: Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to have plummeted by -7.575

million in May, still an improvement from the record-shattering 20.5 million

jobs lost in April. Many states reopened in late April and early May, putting

many Americans back to work for the first time in more than a month, but initial

unemployment claims have remained highly elevated, nearing 12 million during the

reference period for Friday's report. The unemployment rate in May is expected

to reach 19.6%, rivaling Great Depression-era joblessness. The labor force

participation rate should rise as social distancing measures are rolled back. 

Consumer Credit for (dollar change, billions) 

 Friday, June 5 at 3:00pm (ET)                          

                                                             Actual

               Median                                Apr20    Mar20   Feb20     

Cons Cred     -$17.5b                                   --  -$12.0b +$22.3b     

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to fall by -$17.5 billion in

April after falling by -$12.0 billion in March. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]