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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
Wholesale Trade (percent change)
Tuesday, June 9 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Sales -- -5.2% -0.7%
Comments: No BBG forecast is currently available.
Consumer Price Index (percent change)
Wednesday, June 10 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
CPI flat -- -0.8% -0.4%
CPI Core flat -- -0.4% -0.1%
Comments: U.S. consumer inflation was likely flat in May after falling -0.8% in
April as gas and oil prices continued to fall but at slower rates than the
previous month. Core CPI should also remain unchanged in May after falling -0.4%
in April. Despite state re-openings, demand for goods and services remained
muted through the month, which likely kept prices low, though prices of goods
like air fares and hotel stays declined slightly in May after falling more
sharply in late March and April.
Treasury Statement (USD billions)
Wednesday, June 10 at 2:00pm (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Treasury Budget -$625.0b -- -$737.9b -$119.1b
Comments: The U.S. Treasury's budget deficit for May is expected to register at
$625.0 billion, marking its second largest level after last month's record
$737.9 billion deficit since 1954.
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
Thursday, June 11 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median June06 May30 May23
Claims 1.550m -- 1.877M 2.126m
Comments: The jobless claims surge is slowly subsiding, but it remains at
record-high levels with next week's new initial claim filings expected to reach
1.550 million. In the wake of weakened consumer demand, lockdowns, and continued
social distancing, over 42 million claims have been filed in the last 11 weeks.
The latest jobs report released Friday suggests a rosier picture with payrolls
rising by 2.5 million last month. Analysts attribute the divergence to state
backlogs in processing filings and workers returning to their jobs as the
economy reopened.
Producer Price Index (percent change)
Thursday, June 11 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
PPI +0.1% -- -1.3% -0.2%
Core PPI -0.1% -- -0.3% +0.2%
Core PPI ex trade -0.2% -- -0.9% -0.2%
Comments: Month-over-month final demand PPI is expected to grow slightly by
0.1%, halting three straight month of declines. Core PPI is expected to shrink
for the second straight month while core PPI ex trade should fall by -0.2%.
Import/Export Prices (percent change)
Friday, June 12 at 8:30am (ET) Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Import Price Index +0.6% -- -2.6% -2.3%
Export Price Index +0.7% -- -3.3% -1.6%
Comments: The import price index is expected to increase by 0.6% with the export
price index is climbing by 0.7%, marking the end to the three straight months of
decreases for both indexes.
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April (preliminary)
Friday, June 12 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20(p) May20 Apr20
Consumer Sent 75.0 -- 72.3 71.8
Comments: U.S. consumer sentiment likely rose in June, with markets expecting
the University of Michigan's measure to hit 75.0, up from 72.3 in May. April's
71.8 reading was the lowest reading since December 2011 when the index reached
69.9. Consumer sentiment has slipped in recent months as the Covid-19 pandemic
forced businesses across the globe to temporarily, and in some cases
permanently, close their doors. But sentiment improved last month as coronavirus
relief funds under the CARES Act were distributed to households, University of
Michigan researchers said in May's preliminary report.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.