US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (index)

 Tuesday, July 14 at 6:00am (ET)                       

     The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is expected to rise to 97.8 in June

from 94.4 a month earlier. 

Consumer Price Index (percent change)

 Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30am (ET)                        

                                                           Actual

                   Median                            Jun20  May20  Apr20    

CPI                  0.5%                               --  -0.1%  -0.8%  

CPI Core             0.1%                               --  -0.1%  -0.4% 

     U.S. consumer inflation likely rebounded in June, increasing for the first

time since February. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 0.5% after falling

-0.1% in May. Energy prices are expected to show a hefty increase while food

prices likely rose slightly, lifting the headline measure. Core CPI is expected

to rise by 0.1% after falling -0.1% in May as hotels and airlines saw higher

volumes.  

Empire Manufacturing Survey (index)

 Wednesday, July 15 at 8:30am (ET)

     The NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing index likely rose to 9.1 in July,

reversing June's -0.2 reading. 

Import/Export Prices (percent change)

 Wednesday, July 15 at 8:30am (ET)                         

     The import price index is expected to increase by 1.0% with the export

price index also climbing by 0.8%, marking the second straight month of

increases for both. Import prices rose 1.0% in May, the most since early 2019

and driven by higher fuel prices, while export prices rose 0.5% as industrial

goods prices climbed. On a year-over-year basis, U.S. export prices in May were

still 6.0% lower than in 2019.  

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (percent change)

 Wednesday, July 15 at 9:15am (ET)                         

     Industrial production for June is expected to increase by 4.4%, adding to

May's 1.4% gain, driven by durable goods production. Manufacturing hours worked

rose in the June employment report. Capacity utilization is also expected to

rebound to 67.8% after registering 64.8% in May.

Retail Sales (percent change)

 Thursday, July 16 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                       Actual                   

                  Median                        Jun20   May20  Apr20     

Retail Sales       +5.0%                           --   17.7% -14.7%   

Retail ex mv       +5.0%                           --   12.4% -15.2%    

Retail ex mv+gas   +3.9%                           --   12.4% -14.4%     

     U.S. retail sales are set to rise by 5.0% in June following May's 17.7%

increase that was the largest monthly percent increase on record. Headline sales

should benefit from an increase in gas station sales driven by rising gas prices

as Americans hit the road as Covid-19 lockdowns eased. Still, Thursday's report

offers only a backwards look at consumption as some of the nation's largest

states, including Florida and California, closed down for a second time in late

June. Several more states in July either paused or reversed their reopening

plans. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales should increase 5.0% in June after

a 12.4% gain in May. Excluding motor vehicles and gas, sales is expected to rise

5.0%. 

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, July 16 at 8:30am (ET)          

     U.S. weekly jobless claims filed through July 11 should dip again to 1.250

million Thursday after reaching 1.314 million through July 4. Several states

have shutdown hot spots for a second time while many others continue to reopen

at a slow pace. Continuing claims through July 4 should fall to 17.55 million

from 18.06 million. 

NAHB Home Builder Index (index)

 Thursday, July 16 at 10:00am (ET)

     The National Home Builder Index is slated to climb to 60 in July from 58 in

June. 

Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)                   

 Friday, July 17 at 8:30am (ET)                          

     June housing starts are expected to climb to 1.180 million after reaching

0.891 million in April, their lowest level since since February 2015 (0.888

million). Permits for single family homes saw a large gain last month. Building

permits are also expected to increase, climbing to 1.293 million after reaching

1.216 million in May.

University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (index)

 Friday, July 17 at 10:00am (ET)

     U.S. consumer sentiment likely rose to 79.0 in the July preliminary

estimate, from 78.1 in June. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com

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