US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 26/17:06 EST Jul 26

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                               

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 22 week                                  

 Thursday, July 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

                 Median        Range                 Jul22  Jul15  Jul08

 Weekly Claims     240k     235k to 250k                --   233k   248k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 7,000 to 240,000 in the July 22 week after a 15,000 decrease in the  

previous week. The four-week moving average, which fell by 2,250 in the 

July 15 week, would fall by 1,000 in the coming week as the 244,000     

level in the June 24 week drops out of the drops out of the calculation,

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Auto   

plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While         

automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year, 

seasonal factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in   

the month, followed by declines at the end of the month.                

Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)                          

 Thursday, July 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Jun17  May17  Apr17

 New Orders     +4.0%   +1.8% to +5.3%                  --  -0.8%  -0.8%

 Ex-Transport   +0.4%    Flat to +0.7%                  --  +0.3%  -0.4%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 4.0% in June

after a 0.8% decline in May. Boeing orders surged to 184 from 13 in May,

suggesting aircraft orders rebounded sharply. Orders excluding          

transportation are expected to rose 0.4% after a 0.3% increase in May.  

GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)                               

 Friday, July 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median        Range                   2Q17a   1Q17   4Q16

 GDP            +2.6%   +1.9% to +3.0%                  --  +1.4%  +2.1%

 Chain Prices   +1.3%   +1.0% to +2.7%                  --  +1.9%  +2.1%

     Comments: First quarter GDP is expected to rise 2.6% after a 1.4%  

increase in the previous quarter. The key factors are expected to be    

stronger PCE growth and inventory accumulation and slightly improved    

nonresidential fixed investment, offset by softer residential fixed     

investment growth and modestly wider trade gap. The chain price index is

forecast to rise 1.3% after the first quarter's 1.9% gain. Annual       

revisions will be included with the data.                               

Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter (percent change)               

 Friday, July 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median       Range                   2Q17   1Q17   4Q16

 Construction     +0.6%   +0.5% to +0.7%                --  +0.8%  +0.5%

     Comments: Analysts expected the Employment Cost Index to rise by   

0.6% in the second quarter after a surprisingly strong 0.8% gain in the 

first quarter.                                                          

University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          

 Friday, July 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                Median       Range                  Jul17f Jul17p  Jun17

 Consumer Sent   93.2     93.0 to 94.5                  --   93.1   95.1

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to be revised up

slightly to 93.2 in July, still down from 95.1 in June.                         

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]