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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 1/17:06 EST Aug 1
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 29 week
Thursday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul29 Jul22 Jul15
Weekly Claims 240k 235k to 247k -- 244k 234k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 4,000 to 240,000 in the July 29 week after a 10,000 increase in the
previous week. The four-week moving average, which held steady in the
July 22 week, would decline by 2,500 in the coming week as the 250,000
level in the July 1 week drops out of the drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Auto
plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While
automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year,
seasonal factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in
the month, followed by declines at the end of the month.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July
Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul17 Jun17 May17
ISM NMI 56.9 55.0 to 57.1 -- 57.4 56.9
Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to
a reading of 56.9 in July after rising to 57.4 in June. The flash Markit
Services estimate held steady at 54.2 in July.
Factory Orders for June (percent change)
Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun17 May17 Apr17
New Orders +3.0% +2.4% to +3.5% -- -0.8% -0.3%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise 3.0% in June. Durable
goods orders surged 6.5% in the month on a spike in aircraft orders,
while nondurables orders are expected to post a further decline due to
soft energy prices.
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)
Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul17 Jun17 May17
Payrolls +181k +170k to +220k -- +222k +152k
Private Job +185k +165k to +205k -- +187k +159k
Jobless Rate 4.3% 4.3% to 4.4% -- 4.4% 4.3%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.2% +0.1%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.4
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 181,000 in July
after a stronger-than-expected 222,000 gain in June. The unemployment
rate is expected to fall back to 4.3% after rebounding to 4.4% in June.
Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in the
previous month. Due to a large 0.4% rise in hourly earnings in July
2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to be trimmed. The
average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5.
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)
Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun17 May17 Apr17
Trade Gap -$44.1b -$44.9b to -$43.9b -- -$46.5b -$47.6b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to
$44.1 billion in June. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade
gap narrowed to $63.9 billion in June, with exports up 1.4% and imports
down 0.4%.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.