US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.           

Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median       Range                    Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Retail Sales   +0.3%    +0.2% to +1.0%                 --  -0.2%  -0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.3%    +0.1% to +1.0%                 --  -0.2%  -0.3%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% in July after a   

0.2% decline in June. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales  

rose modestly in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices pulled   

back further in mid-July compared with one month earlier. Retail sales  

are expected to rise 0.3% excluding motor vehicles after June's 0.2%    

decline and analysts see a strong reading for the control group after   

recent soft gains.                                                      

Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)                         

 Tuesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Empire Index      10.0     8.0 to 15.0                 --    9.8   19.8

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to rise to a reading  

of 10.0 in August after dipping to 9.8 in July.                         

Business Inventories for June (percent change)                          

 Tuesday, August 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jun17  May17  Apr17

 Inventories   +0.5%     +0.4% to +0.5%                 --  +0.3%  -0.2%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in June.  

Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.2% in the month, while

wholesale inventories rose 0.7% and the advance report pointed to a 0.6%

rise for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks   

for a 0.5% increase for business inventories. As for sales, factory     

shipments were down 0.2% and wholesale sales rose 0.7%, while retail    

trade sales fell 0.1% in the advance retail sales report. An MNI        

calculation looks for a 0.2% increase in business sales, barring a large

revision to the retail trade sales number.                              

Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          

 Wednesday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median           Range                   Jul17  Jun17  May17 

 Starts    1.220m      1.190m to 1.250m                 -- 1.215m 1.122m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to accelerate to a 1.220 million annual rate in July after a   

large increase in June. A jump in June building permits provides some   

upside risk. Total starts were up 4.7% year/year before seasonal        

adjustment in June, while permits were up 6.6%, but it remains to be    

seen if that pace can be maintained.                                    

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 12 week                                

 Thursday, August 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug12  Aug05  Jul29

 Weekly Claims     240k     235k to 245k                --   244k   241k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 4,000 to 240,000 in the August 12 employment survey week after a     

3,000 increase in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 234,000  

in the July 15 employment survey week. The four-week moving average,    

which has declined in the last two weeks, would rise by 1,500 in the    

coming week as the 234,000 level in the July 15 week drops out of the   

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         

 Thursday, August 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:      

             Median         Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Phila Fed     19.2     10.0 to 25.0                    --   19.5   27.6

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to slide very     

modestly to a reading of 19.2 in August following the declines in June  

and July.                                                               

Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         

 Thursday, August 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Ind Prod      +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.5%                  --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 Cap Util      76.7%    76.6% to 76.9%                  --  76.6%  76.4%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in July   

after a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 16,000

in July, while auto production jobs up 2,000 and the factory workweek   

was steady at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 60.6 in July 

from 62.4 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to    

rebound in the month after a flat June reading, while mining production 

is forecast to post another increase. Capacity utilization is forecast  

to rise modestly to 76.7% from 76.6% in June.                           

Leading Indicators for July (percent change)                            

 Thursday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Leading Index    +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.6%  +0.2%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

only 0.3% in July after jumping by 0.6% in June. The rate spread should 

be a significant positive factor this month, with other positive        

contributions from falling jobless claims, higher stock prices, and a   

rise in consumer expectations.                                          

University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  

 Friday, August 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Aug17p  Jul17  Jun17

 Consumer Sent    94.0     93.0 to 96.0                 --   93.4   95.1

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to

move up to 94.0 in early-August from 93.4 in July.                      

                    ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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