Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.    
Trade in Goods and Services for July (deficit, billion $)               
 Wednesday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median           Range               Jul17   Jun17   May17
 Trade Gap   -$44.8b      -$45.5b to -$44.0b          -- -$43.6b -$46.4b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen modestly
to $44.8 billion in July. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade
gap widened to $65.1 billion in July, with exports down 1.3% and imports
down 0.3%.                                                              
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August                                  
 Wednesday, September 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 ISM NMI        56.0     54.0 to 57.0                   --   53.9   57.4
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rebound to 
a reading of 56.0 in August after falling to 53.9 in July. The flash    
Markit Services estimate rose to 56.9 in August from 54.2 in July.      
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 2 week                              
 Thursday, September 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Sep02  Aug26  Aug19
 Weekly Claims      248k     235k to 265k               --   236k   235k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 12,000 to 248,000 in the August 26 week after a 1,000 increase in the
previous week, possibly reflecting filings in the hurricane-affected    
regions. The four-week moving average, which has declined for five      
straight weeks, would rise by 1,000 in the coming week as the 244,000     
level in the August 5 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the   
MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                     
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)    
 Thursday, September 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                   Median         Range              2Q17r  2Q17p   1Q17
 Productivity       +1.4%     +0.9% to +1.5%            --  +0.9%  +0.1%
 Unit Labor Costs   +0.3%     +0.1% to +0.6%            --  +0.6%  +5.4%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up to a   
1.4% rate of growth in the second quarter, as the output component      
should be revised up based on the GDP data. Unit labor costs are        
expected to be revised down to a 0.3% rate.                                
Consumer Credit for July (dollar change, billions)                      
 Friday, September 8 at 3:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:        
             Median           Range                Jul17   Jun17   May17
 Cons Cred  +$15.0b    +$14.0b to +$17.4b             -- +$12.4b +$18.3b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in  
July after a $12.4 billion rise in June. Retail sales rose 0.6% and were
still up 0.5% excluding a 1.2% surge in motor vehicle sales.            
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.