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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.   
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           
 Date to be announced                                    Actual:        
             Median           Range              Sep17    Aug17    Sep16
 Balance     +$5.5b     +$4.0b to +$7.0b            -- -$107.7b  +$33.5b
     Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should
show some deterioration from the previous year. For September           
specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for 
hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax     
receipts. As a result, analysts expect a roughly balanced budget for the
September tax  month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September    
2016.                                                                   
Industrial Production for September (percent change)                    
 Tuesday, October 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Ind Prod      +0.2%      -0.9% to +0.8%                --  -0.9%  +0.4%
 Cap Util      76.2%      75.4% to 76.6%                --  76.1%  76.9%
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in        
September after a 0.9% hurricane-related plunge in the previous month.  
The effects of Hurricane Irma in Florida should be seen with this       
month's data, providing some downside risk and accounting for the wide  
range of forecasts. Factory payrolls fell by 1,000 in September, while  
auto production jobs fell by 3,000 and the factory workweek was         
unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index rose to 62.2 in       
September from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is      
expected to rise modestly in the month after a 5.5% August drop, while  
mining production is forecast to recover after posting a 0.8% decline   
due to Harvey. Capacity utilization is forecast to tick up to 76.2% from
76.1% in August.                                                        
Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million)                     
 Wednesday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
           Median           Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 
 Starts    1.170m     1.144m to 1.220m                 -- 1.180m 1.190m 
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        
expected to slow modestly to a 1.170 million annual rate in September   
after a small decline in August. The hurricanes should have an even     
bigger impact on the data in September than it did August, with growth  
in new home building stunted for the month, followed by rapid rebuilding
in the near future. The NAHB index fell in September, a negative for the
housing starts data.                                                    
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 14 week                               
 Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Oct14  Oct07  Sep30
 Weekly Claims      240k      235k to 251k              --   243k   258k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
decline by 3,000 to 240,000 in the October 14 employment survey week    
after a 15,000 decrease in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 
260,000 in the September 16 employment survey week. The levels of       
initial and continuing filings remain elevated, particularly in the     
hurricane-impacted regions, but the overall level has nearly returned to
pre-hurricane levels. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,000  
in the coming week as that 260,000 level in the September 16 week drops 
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  
are no revisions.                                                       
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)        
 Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
             Median         Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Phila Fed     21.0      20.0 to 25.8                   --   23.8   18.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall back to a 
still-solid reading of 21.0 in October following a gain in September to 
23.8.                                                                   
Leading Indicators for September (percent change)                       
 Thursday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Leading Index    +0.1%      -0.2% to +0.2%             --  +0.4%  +0.3%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   
0.1% in September. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new 
orders index and consumer expected, offset by negative contributions    
from the surge in initial claims due to the hurricanes and slightly     
shorter factory workweek.                                               
Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                         
 Friday, October 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Home Resales     5.30m      5.10m to 5.38m             --  5.35m  5.44m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to decelerate
further to a 5.30 million annual rate in September after falling in each
of the last three months. Sales were likely set back by the hurricanes, 
but could rebound early in 2018 due to the back-up of sales that could  
not be processed in the impacted areas. Pending home sales fell by 2.6% 
in August, a downside risk for the existing home sales data in          
September. Supply fell 2.1% in August and was down 6.5% from a year     
earlier, an indication of that supply shortage continues. In areas      
impacted by the hurricanes, the shortage of new homes for people to     
trade up to will likely continue for some time.                         
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

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