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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 16/16:06 EST Oct 16
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)
Date to be announced Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Sep16
Balance +$5.5b +$4.0b to +$7.0b -- -$107.7b +$33.5b
Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should
show some deterioration from the previous year. For September
specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for
hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax
receipts. As a result, analysts expect a roughly balanced budget for the
September tax month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September
2016.
Industrial Production for September (percent change)
Tuesday, October 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Ind Prod +0.2% -0.9% to +0.8% -- -0.9% +0.4%
Cap Util 76.2% 75.4% to 76.6% -- 76.1% 76.9%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in
September after a 0.9% hurricane-related plunge in the previous month.
The effects of Hurricane Irma in Florida should be seen with this
month's data, providing some downside risk and accounting for the wide
range of forecasts. Factory payrolls fell by 1,000 in September, while
auto production jobs fell by 3,000 and the factory workweek was
unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index rose to 62.2 in
September from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is
expected to rise modestly in the month after a 5.5% August drop, while
mining production is forecast to recover after posting a 0.8% decline
due to Harvey. Capacity utilization is forecast to tick up to 76.2% from
76.1% in August.
Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million)
Wednesday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Starts 1.170m 1.144m to 1.220m -- 1.180m 1.190m
Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is
expected to slow modestly to a 1.170 million annual rate in September
after a small decline in August. The hurricanes should have an even
bigger impact on the data in September than it did August, with growth
in new home building stunted for the month, followed by rapid rebuilding
in the near future. The NAHB index fell in September, a negative for the
housing starts data.
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 14 week
Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct14 Oct07 Sep30
Weekly Claims 240k 235k to 251k -- 243k 258k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
decline by 3,000 to 240,000 in the October 14 employment survey week
after a 15,000 decrease in the previous week. Claims were at a level of
260,000 in the September 16 employment survey week. The levels of
initial and continuing filings remain elevated, particularly in the
hurricane-impacted regions, but the overall level has nearly returned to
pre-hurricane levels. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,000
in the coming week as that 260,000 level in the September 16 week drops
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there
are no revisions.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)
Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Phila Fed 21.0 20.0 to 25.8 -- 23.8 18.9
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall back to a
still-solid reading of 21.0 in October following a gain in September to
23.8.
Leading Indicators for September (percent change)
Thursday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Leading Index +0.1% -0.2% to +0.2% -- +0.4% +0.3%
Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by
0.1% in September. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new
orders index and consumer expected, offset by negative contributions
from the surge in initial claims due to the hurricanes and slightly
shorter factory workweek.
Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)
Friday, October 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Home Resales 5.30m 5.10m to 5.38m -- 5.35m 5.44m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to decelerate
further to a 5.30 million annual rate in September after falling in each
of the last three months. Sales were likely set back by the hurricanes,
but could rebound early in 2018 due to the back-up of sales that could
not be processed in the impacted areas. Pending home sales fell by 2.6%
in August, a downside risk for the existing home sales data in
September. Supply fell 2.1% in August and was down 6.5% from a year
earlier, an indication of that supply shortage continues. In areas
impacted by the hurricanes, the shortage of new homes for people to
trade up to will likely continue for some time.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.