US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 16/16:06 EST Oct 16

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           

 Date to be announced                                    Actual:        

             Median           Range              Sep17    Aug17    Sep16

 Balance     +$5.5b     +$4.0b to +$7.0b            -- -$107.7b  +$33.5b

     Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should

show some deterioration from the previous year. For September           

specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for 

hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax     

receipts. As a result, analysts expect a roughly balanced budget for the

September tax  month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September    

2016.                                                                   

Industrial Production for September (percent change)                    

 Tuesday, October 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Ind Prod      +0.2%      -0.9% to +0.8%                --  -0.9%  +0.4%

 Cap Util      76.2%      75.4% to 76.6%                --  76.1%  76.9%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in        

September after a 0.9% hurricane-related plunge in the previous month.  

The effects of Hurricane Irma in Florida should be seen with this       

month's data, providing some downside risk and accounting for the wide  

range of forecasts. Factory payrolls fell by 1,000 in September, while  

auto production jobs fell by 3,000 and the factory workweek was         

unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index rose to 62.2 in       

September from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is      

expected to rise modestly in the month after a 5.5% August drop, while  

mining production is forecast to recover after posting a 0.8% decline   

due to Harvey. Capacity utilization is forecast to tick up to 76.2% from

76.1% in August.                                                        

Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million)                     

 Wednesday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

           Median           Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 

 Starts    1.170m     1.144m to 1.220m                 -- 1.180m 1.190m 

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to slow modestly to a 1.170 million annual rate in September   

after a small decline in August. The hurricanes should have an even     

bigger impact on the data in September than it did August, with growth  

in new home building stunted for the month, followed by rapid rebuilding

in the near future. The NAHB index fell in September, a negative for the

housing starts data.                                                    

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 14 week                               

 Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Oct14  Oct07  Sep30

 Weekly Claims      240k      235k to 251k              --   243k   258k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

decline by 3,000 to 240,000 in the October 14 employment survey week    

after a 15,000 decrease in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 

260,000 in the September 16 employment survey week. The levels of       

initial and continuing filings remain elevated, particularly in the     

hurricane-impacted regions, but the overall level has nearly returned to

pre-hurricane levels. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,000  

in the coming week as that 260,000 level in the September 16 week drops 

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  

are no revisions.                                                       

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)        

 Thursday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

             Median         Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Phila Fed     21.0      20.0 to 25.8                   --   23.8   18.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall back to a 

still-solid reading of 21.0 in October following a gain in September to 

23.8.                                                                   

Leading Indicators for September (percent change)                       

 Thursday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Leading Index    +0.1%      -0.2% to +0.2%             --  +0.4%  +0.3%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.1% in September. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new 

orders index and consumer expected, offset by negative contributions    

from the surge in initial claims due to the hurricanes and slightly     

shorter factory workweek.                                               

Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                         

 Friday, October 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Home Resales     5.30m      5.10m to 5.38m             --  5.35m  5.44m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to decelerate

further to a 5.30 million annual rate in September after falling in each

of the last three months. Sales were likely set back by the hurricanes, 

but could rebound early in 2018 due to the back-up of sales that could  

not be processed in the impacted areas. Pending home sales fell by 2.6% 

in August, a downside risk for the existing home sales data in          

September. Supply fell 2.1% in August and was down 6.5% from a year     

earlier, an indication of that supply shortage continues. In areas      

impacted by the hurricanes, the shortage of new homes for people to     

trade up to will likely continue for some time.                         

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com