US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Durable Goods Orders for September (percent change)                     

 Wednesday, October 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 New Orders     +1.1%     -0.4% to +3.4%                --  +2.0%  -6.8%

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%     +0.2% to +0.9%                --  +0.5%  +0.8%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 1.1% in     

September after a 2.0% rebound in August, though the impact of the      

hurricanes presents a downside risk. Boeing orders rose to 72 from 33 in

August, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders should post a solid gain. 

Orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.5% for a second  

straight month.                                                         

New Home Sales for September (annual rate)                              

 Wednesday, October 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                Actual:          

               Median         Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 New Homes       555k      535k to 580k                 --   560k   580k

     Comments: New home sales are expected to slip further to a 555,000 

annual rate in September following larger declines in the previous two  

months. Unadjusted sales were down 2.2% from a year earlier before      

seasonal adjustment. Home supply rose by 3.6% in August, lifting the    

months supply to 6.1 months, so there should be adequate homes available

for sale when demand returns.                                           

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 21 week                               

 Thursday, October 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Oct21  Oct14  Oct07

 Weekly Claims      235k     225k to 240k               --   222k   244k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 13,000 to a still-low 235,000 in the October 21 week after a 22,000  

decrease in the previous week to the lowest level since 1973. The       

four-week moving average would fall by 8,500 in the coming week as that 

269,000 level in the September 23 week drops out of the calculation,    

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

GDP for Third Quarter (advance estimate)                                

 Friday, October 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median        Range                   3Q17a   2Q17   1Q17

 GDP            +2.7%     +1.9% to +3.3%                --  +3.1%  +1.2%

 Chain Prices   +1.8%     +1.5% to +2.0%                --  +1.0%  +2.0%

     Comments: Analysts expected GDP to rise 2.7% in the advance        

estimate for the third quaters, only slightly below the 3.1% increase in

the second quarter. Analysts will watch closely to see the impact of the

hurricanes in August and September. The key drivers are expected to be  

an auto-related boost in PCE and an improved net export gap, offset by  

softer inventories and fixed investment. The chain price index is       

forecast to rise 1.8% after a 1.0% gain in the second quarter.          

University of Michigan Survey for October (final)                       

 Friday, October 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Oct17f Oct17p  Sep17

 Consumer Sent   101.0      100.0 to 101.5              --  101.1   95.1

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   

only slightly lower to a reading of 101.0 from the 101.1 preliminary    

estimate, keeping it well above the 95.1 reading in September. Record   

stock market levels and the belief that August and September's          

hurricane impacts were less than expected have lifted confidence.       

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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