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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 27/16:06 EST Oct 27
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.  
                                                                         
Personal Income for September (percent change)                           
 Monday, October 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         
              Median          Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 
 Income        +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.4%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3% 
 Spending      +0.9%     +0.7% to +1.1%                 --  +0.1%  +0.3% 
 Core Prices   +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1% 
                                                                         
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in September, 
as payrolls fell by 33,000, but average weekly hours held steady at 34.4 
hours and hourly earnings surged by 0.5%. Current dollar PCE is forecast 
to jump 0.9%, as retail sales surged 1.6% in the month and were still up 
1.0% excluding a 3.6% spike in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales    
(also ex. gas) were up 0.5% in the month, while sales excluding autos,   
gas, building materials and food services up 0.4%, indicating underlying 
strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1% gain in    
September, reflecting steady core CPI data. The year/year gain should    
remain below 2%.                                                         
                                                                         
Employment Cost Index for Third Quarter (percent change)                 
 Tuesday, October 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         
                 Median       Range                   3Q17   2Q17   1Q17 
 Construction     +0.7%     -0.6% to +0.8%              --  +0.5%  +0.8% 
                                                                         
     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the third quarter  
after a 0.5% gain in the second quarter. Analysts will watch the         
year/year rate closely to see if it moved off the 2.4% rate seen in the  
previous two quarters.                                                   
                                                                         
MNI Chicago Report for October (index)                                   
 Tuesday, October 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                     Actual:         
              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 
 MNI Chicago    59.9     58.0 to 61.0                   --   65.2   58.9 
                                                                         
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slide back to a        
reading of 59.9 in October after rising sharply to 65.2 in September.    
Other regional data already released, however, suggest that growth       
accelerated in those areas.                                              
                                                                         
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for October (index)                 
 Tuesday, October 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:         
              Median            Range                Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 
 Confidence    120.9        119.5 to 123.0              --  119.8  120.4 
                                                                         
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound   
to a reading of 120.9 in October after a small dip to 119.8 in           
September. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 100.7 in October from    
95.1 in the previous month.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                     
     ISM Manufacturing Index for October                                      
 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:         
              Median       Range                     Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 
 Mfg ISM        59.5    58.0 to 61.0                    --   60.8   58.8 
                                                                         
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a      
reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in      
September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have    
suggested stronger growth                                                
                                                                         
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 28 week                                
 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         
                  Median         Range               Oct28  Oct21  Oct14 
 Weekly Claims      235k      235k to 238k              --   233k   223k 
                                                                         
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise   
by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week after a 10,000 increase in    
the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in   
the coming week as the 258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last  
of the true hurricane-impacted weeks, drops out of the calculation,      
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.         
                                                                         
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)  
 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         
                   Median         Range              3Q17p   2Q17   1Q17 
 Productivity       +2.9%    +2.3% to +3.5%             --  +1.5%  +0.1% 
 Unit Labor Costs   +0.6%    +0.0% to +1.0%             --  +0.2%  +4.8% 
                                                                         
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the      
third quarter after a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter, as output       
growth was close to steady, but hours worked growth slowed. Unit labor   
costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain in the   
second quarter.                                                          
                                                                         
Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                       
 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 
 Payrolls       308k       +200k to +350k               --   -33k  +169k 
 Private Job    310k       +260k to +340k               --   -40k  +164k 
 Jobless Rate   4.2%        4.2% to 4.4%                --   4.2%   4.4% 
 Hrly Earnings +0.2%        Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.5%  +0.2% 
 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.4        34.4 to 34.5                --   34.4   34.4 
                                                                         
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 308,000 in       
October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the   
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings    
are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous     
month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for    
the fourth straight month.                                               
                                                                         
Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)           
 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         
              Median           Range               Sep17   Aug17   Jul17 
 Trade Gap   -$43.5b      -$44.0b to -$43.4b          -- -$42.4b -$43.6b 
                                                                         
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5 
billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap 
widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%       
                                                                         
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October                                  
 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:         
              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 
 ISM NMI        58.0    57.0 to 59.0                    --   59.8   55.3 
                                                                         
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a   
reading of 58.0 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September.  
The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but       
remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9 
in the month from 55.3 in September.                                     
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com