US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                

Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                      

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Payrolls       315k       +200k to +350k               --   -33k  +169k

 Private Job    311k       +195k to +340k               --   -40k  +164k

 Jobless Rate   4.2%        4.2% to 4.4%                --   4.2%   4.4%

 Hrly Earnings +0.2%        Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.5%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.4        34.4 to 34.5                --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 315,000 in      

October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the  

unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings   

are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous    

month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for   

the fourth straight month.                                              

Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)          

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median           Range               Sep17   Aug17   Jul17

 Trade Gap   -$43.5b      -$44.0b to -$43.0b          -- -$42.4b -$43.6b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5

billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap

widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%      

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October                                 

 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 ISM NMI        58.6    57.0 to 59.5                    --   59.8   55.3

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  

reading of 58.6 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September. 

The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but      

remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9

in the month from 55.3 in September.                                    

Factory Orders for September (percent change)                           

 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 New Orders    +1.2%        +1.0% to +2.3%              --  +1.2%  -3.3%

 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.4%  +0.5%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.2% in September.

Durable goods orders rose 2.2% in the month on a large gain in aircraft 

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise further on        

hurricane-impacted energy prices. Factory orders are expected to post a 

smaller, but still solid, gain excluding the transportation component.  

Durable orders excluding transportation were rose 0.7% in the advance   

estimate.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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