US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 4/15:06 EST Jan 4

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Nonfarm Payrolls for December (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Payrolls       +190k      +170k to +210k               --  +228k  +244k

 Private Job    +185k      +165k to +205k               --  +221k  +247k

 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.1%                --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  -0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5       34.4 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in      

December after an above expectation reading in November. The            

unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, still very low by        

historical standards. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 

0.2% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours 

after climbing to that point in November.                               

Trade in Goods and Services for November (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median           Range               Nov17   Oct17   Sep17

 Trade Gap   -$49.5b      -$50.4b to -$48.1b          -- -$48.7b -$44.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $49.5

billion in November after widening sharply to $48.7 billion in October. 

The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened to $69.7     

billion, with exports up 3.0% and imports up 2.7%, so the forecast for  

the headline number suggests analysts expect a wider services surplus.  

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for December                                

 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 ISM NMI        57.7      56.5 to 58.3                  --   57.4   60.1

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rebound to 

a reading of 57.7 in December after a decline to 57.4 in November. The  

Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 25.3, while the flash Markit

Services index fell to 52.4.                                            

Factory Orders for November (percent change)                            

 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median             Range               Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Orders    +1.1%       +0.6% to +1.5%               --  -0.1%  +1.7%

 Ex Transport   --            -- to  --                 --  +0.8%  +1.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.1% in November. 

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in the month on a jump in aircraft       

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to post another modest    

gain. Factory orders are expected to be softer excluding the            

transportation component. Durable orders excluding transportation fell  

0.1% in the advance estimate.                                           

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com