US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.

Durable Goods Orders for December (percent change)

 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Dec17  Nov17  Oct17  

 New Orders     +0.9%      -1.5% to +3.1%               --  +1.3%  -0.4% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%      -0.2% to +0.8%               --  -0.1%  +1.4%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in 

December after a 1.3% gain in November. Boeing orders surged to 265 from 

159 in November, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise even 

further. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.5% 

increase after a 0.1% decline in November, showing underlying strength. 

GDP for Fourth Quarter (advance estimate)

 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                   4Q17a   3Q17  2Q17

 GDP            +3.0%      +2.7% to +3.8%                --  +3.2% +3.1% 

 Chain Prices   +2.3%      +2.1% to +2.5%                --  +2.1% +1.0%

     Comments: The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP is expected to 

be rise by 3.0% after a 3.2% gain in the previous quarter, marking a 

third straight quarter above 3%. A large surge in PCE growth is expected 

to be the key factor, based on recent retail sales data. In addition, 

both residential and nonresidential fixed investment are expected post 

gains in the quarter, while inventory growth should post a small 

negative contribution. The chain price index is expected to accelerate 

to a 2.3% rate from 2.1% in the previous quarter. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com

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