US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for January (index)                

 Tuesday, January 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Confidence     123.8     122.0 to 125.5                --  122.1  128.6

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound  

to a reading of 123.8 in January after a decline in December to 122.1,  

as soaring stock prices and the recently-passed tax cuts lifting the    

spirits of consumers. The Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 94.4 in      

early-January from 95.9 in December.                                    

Employment Cost Index for Fourth Quarter (percent change)               

 Wednesday, January 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:      

                 Median       Range                   4Q17   3Q17   2Q17

 ECI              +0.6%    +0.5% to +0.7%               --  +0.7%  +0.5%

     Comments: The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.6% in the

fourth quarter after a 0.7% gain in the previous quarter, keeping in    

line with the recent average.                                           

MNI Chicago Report for January (index)                                  

 Wednesday, January 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 MNI Chicago     64.4     60.0 to 67.7                  --   67.8   65.6

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall back to a        

still-strong reading of 64.4 in January after jumping to 67.8 in        

December. Other regional data already released have suggested a slowdown

in growth.                                                              

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 27 week                               

 Thursday, February 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jan27  Jan20  Jan13

 Weekly Claims    238k     235k to 241k                 --   233k   216k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 5,000 to 238,000 in the January 27 week after a 17,000 rebound in the

previous week. The usual January noise in the data should start to      

dissipate soon. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 in the 

coming week, as the 250,000 level in the December 30 week drops out of  

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  

revisions.                                                              

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)

 Thursday, February 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range            4Q17    3Q17   2Q17

 Productivity       +0.5%      -0.8% to +1.3%          --   +3.0%  +1.5%

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.2%      +0.3% to +4.2%          --   -0.2%  -1.2%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise only 0.5% in the

fourth quarter after a 3.0% gain in the previous quarter, as growth in  

the output component slowed and hours worked growth accelerated. Unit   

labor costs are expected to rise by 1.2% after a 0.2% decline in the    

third quarter.                                                          

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for January (mln units, saar)              

 Thursday, February 1                                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Dom Sales      13.2m      13.1m to 13.2m               --  13.6m  13.3m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow to a    

13.2 million annual rate in January after rising to a 13.6 million      

annual rate in December, with a large snow storm trimming sales in the  

Northeast. Seasonal adjustment factors will add sharply to unadjusted   

sales in January after subtracting modestly from them in December.      

ISM Manufacturing Index for January                                     

 Thursday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Mfg ISM         58.9     57.7 to 60.0                  --   59.3   58.2

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  

reading of 58.9 in January after rising to 59.3 in December after annual

revisions, but still indicate strength. Regional conditions data have   

suggested a slowdown in growth, but the flash Markit estimate ticked up 

slightly to 55.5 from 55.1 in the previous month.                       

Construction Spending for December (percent change)                     

 Thursday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Construction   +0.5%     Flat to +1.0%                 --  +0.8%  +0.9%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     

December. Housing starts fell sharply in the month, suggesting private  

residential building slipped after a November gain.                     

Nonfarm Payrolls for January (change in thousands)                      

 Friday, February 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Payrolls       +185k       +160k to +230k              --  +148k  +252k

 Private Job    +183k       +165k to +230k              --  +146k  +239k

 Jobless Rate    4.1%        4.0% to 4.1%               --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%       +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.3%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5

     Commnents: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in     

January after a below-expectation reading in December. Benchmark        

revisions to the establishment survey data will be included in this     

month's report. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at     

4.1%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while

the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for the   

third straight month.                                                   

Factory Orders for December (percent change)                            

 Friday, February 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median             Range               Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 New Orders    +1.6%       +0.7% to +3.0%               --  +1.3%  +0.4%

 Ex Transport    --           -- to --                  --  +0.8%  +1.2%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.6% in December. 

Durable goods orders rose 2.9% in the month on a surge in aircraft      

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise further. Factory  

orders are expected to still be strong ex. the transportation component.

Durable orders excluding transportation rose by 0.6%.                   

University of Michigan Survey for January (final)                       

 Friday, February 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Jan18f Jan18p  Dec17

 Consumer Sent    95.0       94.5 to 96.0               --   94.4   95.9

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   

slightly to a reading of 95.0 from 94.4.                                

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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