Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.   
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for January (index)                
 Tuesday, January 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 Confidence     123.8     122.0 to 125.5                --  122.1  128.6
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound  
to a reading of 123.8 in January after a decline in December to 122.1,  
as soaring stock prices and the recently-passed tax cuts lifting the    
spirits of consumers. The Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 94.4 in      
early-January from 95.9 in December.                                    
Employment Cost Index for Fourth Quarter (percent change)               
 Wednesday, January 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:      
                 Median       Range                   4Q17   3Q17   2Q17
 ECI              +0.6%    +0.5% to +0.7%               --  +0.7%  +0.5%
     Comments: The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.6% in the
fourth quarter after a 0.7% gain in the previous quarter, keeping in    
line with the recent average.                                           
MNI Chicago Report for January (index)                                  
 Wednesday, January 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 MNI Chicago     64.4     60.0 to 67.7                  --   67.8   65.6
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall back to a        
still-strong reading of 64.4 in January after jumping to 67.8 in        
December. Other regional data already released have suggested a slowdown
in growth.                                                              
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 27 week                               
 Thursday, February 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Jan27  Jan20  Jan13
 Weekly Claims    238k     235k to 241k                 --   233k   216k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 5,000 to 238,000 in the January 27 week after a 17,000 rebound in the
previous week. The usual January noise in the data should start to      
dissipate soon. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 in the 
coming week, as the 250,000 level in the December 30 week drops out of  
the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  
revisions.                                                              
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
 Thursday, February 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                   Median           Range            4Q17    3Q17   2Q17
 Productivity       +0.5%      -0.8% to +1.3%          --   +3.0%  +1.5%
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.2%      +0.3% to +4.2%          --   -0.2%  -1.2%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise only 0.5% in the
fourth quarter after a 3.0% gain in the previous quarter, as growth in  
the output component slowed and hours worked growth accelerated. Unit   
labor costs are expected to rise by 1.2% after a 0.2% decline in the    
third quarter.                                                          
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for January (mln units, saar)              
 Thursday, February 1                                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 Dom Sales      13.2m      13.1m to 13.2m               --  13.6m  13.3m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow to a    
13.2 million annual rate in January after rising to a 13.6 million      
annual rate in December, with a large snow storm trimming sales in the  
Northeast. Seasonal adjustment factors will add sharply to unadjusted   
sales in January after subtracting modestly from them in December.      
ISM Manufacturing Index for January                                     
 Thursday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 Mfg ISM         58.9     57.7 to 60.0                  --   59.3   58.2
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  
reading of 58.9 in January after rising to 59.3 in December after annual
revisions, but still indicate strength. Regional conditions data have   
suggested a slowdown in growth, but the flash Markit estimate ticked up 
slightly to 55.5 from 55.1 in the previous month.                       
Construction Spending for December (percent change)                     
 Thursday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 Construction   +0.5%     Flat to +1.0%                 --  +0.8%  +0.9%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     
December. Housing starts fell sharply in the month, suggesting private  
residential building slipped after a November gain.                     
Nonfarm Payrolls for January (change in thousands)                      
 Friday, February 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 Payrolls       +185k       +160k to +230k              --  +148k  +252k
 Private Job    +183k       +165k to +230k              --  +146k  +239k
 Jobless Rate    4.1%        4.0% to 4.1%               --   4.1%   4.1%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%       +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.3%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5
     Commnents: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in     
January after a below-expectation reading in December. Benchmark        
revisions to the establishment survey data will be included in this     
month's report. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at     
4.1%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while
the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for the   
third straight month.                                                   
Factory Orders for December (percent change)                            
 Friday, February 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median             Range               Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 New Orders    +1.6%       +0.7% to +3.0%               --  +1.3%  +0.4%
 Ex Transport    --           -- to --                  --  +0.8%  +1.2%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.6% in December. 
Durable goods orders rose 2.9% in the month on a surge in aircraft      
orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise further. Factory  
orders are expected to still be strong ex. the transportation component.
Durable orders excluding transportation rose by 0.6%.                   
University of Michigan Survey for January (final)                       
 Friday, February 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                Median           Range              Jan18f Jan18p  Dec17
 Consumer Sent    95.0       94.5 to 96.0               --   94.4   95.9
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   
slightly to a reading of 95.0 from 94.4.                                
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.