US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.    

Factory Orders for January (percent change)                             

 Tuesday, March 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median             Range               Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 New Orders    -1.3%        -1.5% to -0.8%              --  +1.7%  +1.7%

 Ex Transport     NA           NA to NA                 --  +0.7%  +1.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 1.3% in January.  

Durable goods orders fell by 3.7% in the month on a plunge in aircraft  

orders, but nondurables orders are expected to rise further due to      

higher energy prices, providing some offset. Factory orders are expected

to be roughly flat excluding the transportation component. Durable      

orders excluding transportation fell by 0.3%.                           

Trade in Goods and Services for January (deficit, billion $)            

 Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         

              Median        Range                  Jan18   Dec17   Nov17

 Trade Gap   -$55.1b    -$55.9b to -$54.0b            -- -$53.1b -$50.4b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $55.1

billion in January from a $53.1 billion gap in December. The advance    

estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $74.4 billion,

with exports down 2.2% and imports down only 0.5%.                      

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)    

 Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         

                   Median           Range           4Q17r   4Q17p   3Q17

 Productivity       -0.1%       -0.2% to +0.7%         --   -0.1%  +1.5%

 Unit Labor Costs   +2.1%       +2.0% to +2.5%         --   +2.0%  -1.2%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be unrevised at a    

0.1% decline, as the output component was virtually unrevised, but the  

gain in hours worked should be revised lower. Unit labor costs are      

expected to be revised up to a 2.1% pace of growth.                     

Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)                   

 Wednesday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Jan18   Dec17   Nov17

 Cons Cred   +$17.8b     +$10.0b to +$19.0b           -- +$18.4b +$31.0b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.8 billion in  

January after an $18.4 billion increase in December. Retail sales fell  

by 0.3% and were flat excluding motor vehicles, even weaker than the    

soft revised December figures.                                          

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 3 week                                  

 Thursday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Mar03  Feb24  Feb17

 Weekly Claims     220k      215k to 225k               --   210k   220k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 10,000 to 220,000 in the March 3 week, fully reversing the 10,000    

decline in the previous week to a 49-year low. The four-week moving     

average would fall by 750 in the coming week, as the 223,000 level in   

the February 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI      

forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                         

Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, March 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Payrolls       +210k    +175k to +250k                 --  +200k  +160k

 Private Job    +200k    +185k to +220k                 --  +196k  +156k

 Jobless Rate    4.0%     4.0% to 4.1%                  --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.3   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 210,000 in      

February after a stronger-than-expected 200,000 reading in January. The 

unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0%. Hourly earnings are       

forecast to rise only 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in January that reflected  

difficulties with low wage hourly workers getting to work due to        

weather, while the average workweek is expected to rebound to 34.4 hours

after dipping to 34.3 in January for the same reason.                   

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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