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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Mar 23/16:06 EST Mar 23
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.        
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (index)                  
 Tuesday, March 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 Confidence    132.0      128.3 to 133.3                --  130.8  124.3
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rise     
further to a reading of 132.0 in March after a surge in February to     
130.8 despite the recent stock market gyrations, with the 313,000 gain  
in February payrolls likely to be seen in the jobs plentiful measure. It
appears that the recently-passed tax cuts have lifted the spirits of    
consumers. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 102.0 in early-March    
from 99.7 in February.                                                  
GDP for Fourth Quarter (third estimate)                                 
 Wednesday, March 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  4Q17t  4Q17s   3Q17
 GDP           +2.7%      +2.6% to +2.8%                --  +2.5%  +3.2%
 Chain Prices  +2.3%      +1.6% to +2.3%                --  +2.3%  +2.1%
     Comments: Analysts expected the third reading of GDP for the fourth
quarter to make little news, with the headline figure revised up        
modestly to +2.7% and the chain price index unrevised at +2.3%. A       
smaller inventory drag is seen as the key factor. Analysts expect growth
to slow further in the first quarter due to a smaller contribution from 
PCE, but to pick up again in the second quarter-in line recent seasonal 
patterns.                                                               
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 24 week                                 
 Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
                 Median         Range                Mar24  Mar17  Mar10
 Weekly Claims   225k        225k to 225k               --   229k   226k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 4,000 to 225,000 in the March 24 week after a 3,000 increase in the  
previous week to keep claims in their recent narrow range. The four-week
moving average would rise by 3,750 in the coming week, as the           
decades-low 210,000 level in the February 24 week drops out of the      
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      
revisions.                                                              
Personal Income for February (percent change)                           
 Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17
 Income        +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.5%                --  +0.4%  +0.4%
 Spending      +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.4%
 Core Prices   +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.2%                --  +0.3%  +0.2%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in February, 
as payrolls posted a 313,000 surge, hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, but   
average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast 
to rise by 0.2% after a 0.2% January increase, with durables spending   
down due to a decline in auto spending. Total retail sales fell by 0.1% 
in the month and were up only 0.2% excluding a 0.9% drop in motor       
vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and
food services were up 0.1%, indicating modest underlying growth. The    
core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February    
following a 0.3% gain in January, so the year/year rate would tick up to
1.6% after holding at 1.5% in recent months, but rounding may have more 
to do with the increase than an actual acceleration.                    
MNI Chicago Report for March (index)                                    
 Thursday, March 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 MNI Chicago   63.3        63.0 to 64.5                 --   61.9   65.7
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rebound to a reading  
of 63.3 in March after dipping to a still-strong reading of 61.9 in     
February. Other regional data already released were mixed. The Empire   
State reading was up, the Philadelphia Fed reading down, and the Kansas 
City Fed reading unchanged. All indicate solid growth.                  
University of Michigan Survey for March (final)                         
 Thursday, March 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                Median           Range              Mar18f Mar18p  Feb18
 Consumer Sent  102.0        102.0 to 102.0             --  102.0   99.7
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   
unrevised at a reading of 102.0 in March, still up from 99.7 in         
February.                                                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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