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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (index)
Tuesday, March 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18 Feb18 Jan18
Confidence 131.0 128.0 to 133.3 -- 130.8 124.3
Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rise
further to a reading of 131.0 in March after a surge in February to
130.8 despite the recent stock market gyrations, with the 313,000 gain
in February payrolls likely to be seen in the jobs plentiful measure. It
appears that the recently-passed tax cuts have lifted the spirits of
consumers. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 102.0 in early-March
from 99.7 in February.
GDP for Fourth Quarter (third estimate)
Wednesday, March 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q17t 4Q17s 3Q17
GDP +2.7% +2.5% to +2.8% -- +2.5% +3.2%
Chain Prices +2.3% +2.3% to +2.3% -- +2.3% +2.1%
Comments: Analysts expected the third reading of GDP for the fourth
quarter to make little news, with the headline figure revised up
modestly to +2.7% and the chain price index unrevised at +2.3%. A
smaller inventory drag is seen as the key factor. Analysts expect growth
to slow further in the first quarter due to a smaller contribution from
PCE, but to pick up again in the second quarter-in line recent seasonal
patterns.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 24 week
Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar24 Mar17 Mar10
Weekly Claims 230k 225k to 233k -- 229k 226k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 1,000 to 230,000 in the March 24 week after a 3,000 increase in the
previous week to keep claims in their recent narrow range. The four-week
moving average would rise by 5,000 in the coming week, as the
decades-low 210,000 level in the February 24 week drops out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
revisions.
Personal Income for February (percent change)
Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb18 Jan18 Dec17
Income +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Spending +0.2% -0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.2% +0.4%
Core Prices +0.2% +0.2% to +0.2% -- +0.3% +0.2%
Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in February,
as payrolls posted a 313,000 surge, hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, but
average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast
to rise by 0.2% after a 0.2% January increase, with durables spending
down due to a decline in auto spending. Total retail sales fell by 0.1%
in the month and were up only 0.2% excluding a 0.9% drop in motor
vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and
food services were up 0.1%, indicating modest underlying growth. The
core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February
following a 0.3% gain in January, so the year/year rate would tick up to
1.6% after holding at 1.5% in recent months, but rounding may have more
to do with the increase than an actual acceleration.
MNI Chicago Report for March (index)
Thursday, March 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18 Feb18 Jan18
MNI Chicago 62.5 61.0 to 64.5 -- 61.9 65.7
Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rebound to a reading
of 62.5 in March after dipping to a still-strong reading of 61.9 in
February. Other regional data already released were mixed. The Empire
State reading was up, the Philadelphia Fed reading down, and the Kansas
City Fed reading unchanged. All indicate solid growth.
University of Michigan Survey for March (final)
Thursday, March 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18f Mar18p Feb18
Consumer Sent 102.0 100.0 to 102.0 -- 102.0 99.7
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised
unrevised at a reading of 102.0 in March, still up from 99.7 in
February.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.