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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.  
Weekly Jobless Claims for April 28 week                                 
 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Apr28  Apr21  Apr14
 Weekly Claims     225k      220k to 226k               --   209k   233k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
rebound to 225,000 in the April 28 after a decline of 24,000 in the     
previous week to a 48-year low that was due in large part to the timing 
of a school break in New York. The four-week moving average would still 
decline in the coming week as the 242,000 level in the March 31 week    
drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  
there are no revisions. This would break the string of gains for the    
average in recent weeks.                                                
Trade in Goods and Services for March (deficit, billion $)              
 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            
              Median        Range                  Mar18   Feb18   Jan18
 Trade Gap   -$49.8b   -$56.2b to -$47.5b             -- -$57.6b -$56.7b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow sharply
to $49.8 billion in March from a $57.6 billion gap in February. The     
advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap narrowed sharply to $68.0
billion, with exports up 2.5% and imports down 2.1%.                    
Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            
                   Median           Range           1Q18p    4Q17   3Q17
 Productivity       +0.9%      +0.5% to +1.3%          --    Flat  +2.6%
 Unit Labor Costs   +3.0%      +2.7% to +3.5%          --   +2.5%  +1.0%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.9% in the     
first quarter after a flat reading in the previous quarter. The output  
component should be softer, but still positive, while hours worked      
growth roughly unchanged. Unit labor costs are expected to rise 3.0%    
after a 2.5% jump in the fourth quarter.                                
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April                                   
 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 ISM NMI        58.2     57.5 to 59.2                   --   58.8   59.5
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  
reading of 58.2 in April from 58.8 in March. The Philadelphia           
nonmanufacturing index fell to 27.6, while the flash Markit Services    
index rose to 54.4.                                                     
Factory Orders for March (percent change)                               
 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median             Range               Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 New Orders    +1.4%       +0.9% to +1.8%               --  +1.2%  -1.3%
 Ex Transport   --            -- to --                  --  +0.1%  +0.4%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.4% in March.    
Durable goods orders jumped by 2.6% in the month on another sharp gain  
in aircraft orders, but nondurables orders are expected to be negatively
impacted by soft energy prices. Factory orders are forecast to be soft  
excluding the transportation component, as durable orders excluding     
transportation were flat.                                               
Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                        
 Friday, May 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 Payrolls       +185k      +145k to +255k               --  +103k  +326k
 Private Job    +191k      +170k to +250k               --  +102k  +320k
 Jobless Rate    4.0%        4.0% to 4.0%               --   4.1%   4.1%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April
after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong    
326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to  
4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are 
forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average workweek is  
expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.                        
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

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