US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Weekly Jobless Claims for April 28 week                                 

 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Apr28  Apr21  Apr14

 Weekly Claims     225k      220k to 226k               --   209k   233k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound to 225,000 in the April 28 after a decline of 24,000 in the     

previous week to a 48-year low that was due in large part to the timing 

of a school break in New York. The four-week moving average would still 

decline in the coming week as the 242,000 level in the March 31 week    

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions. This would break the string of gains for the    

average in recent weeks.                                                

Trade in Goods and Services for March (deficit, billion $)              

 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            

              Median        Range                  Mar18   Feb18   Jan18

 Trade Gap   -$49.8b   -$56.2b to -$47.5b             -- -$57.6b -$56.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow sharply

to $49.8 billion in March from a $57.6 billion gap in February. The     

advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap narrowed sharply to $68.0

billion, with exports up 2.5% and imports down 2.1%.                    

Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            

                   Median           Range           1Q18p    4Q17   3Q17

 Productivity       +0.9%      +0.5% to +1.3%          --    Flat  +2.6%

 Unit Labor Costs   +3.0%      +2.7% to +3.5%          --   +2.5%  +1.0%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.9% in the     

first quarter after a flat reading in the previous quarter. The output  

component should be softer, but still positive, while hours worked      

growth roughly unchanged. Unit labor costs are expected to rise 3.0%    

after a 2.5% jump in the fourth quarter.                                

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April                                   

 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 ISM NMI        58.2     57.5 to 59.2                   --   58.8   59.5

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  

reading of 58.2 in April from 58.8 in March. The Philadelphia           

nonmanufacturing index fell to 27.6, while the flash Markit Services    

index rose to 54.4.                                                     

Factory Orders for March (percent change)                               

 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median             Range               Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 New Orders    +1.4%       +0.9% to +1.8%               --  +1.2%  -1.3%

 Ex Transport   --            -- to --                  --  +0.1%  +0.4%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.4% in March.    

Durable goods orders jumped by 2.6% in the month on another sharp gain  

in aircraft orders, but nondurables orders are expected to be negatively

impacted by soft energy prices. Factory orders are forecast to be soft  

excluding the transportation component, as durable orders excluding     

transportation were flat.                                               

Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                        

 Friday, May 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Payrolls       +185k      +145k to +255k               --  +103k  +326k

 Private Job    +191k      +170k to +250k               --  +102k  +320k

 Jobless Rate    4.0%        4.0% to 4.0%               --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April

after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong    

326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to  

4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average workweek is  

expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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