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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for May 19 week
Thursday, May 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May19 May12 May05
Weekly Claims 220k 217k to 224k -- 222k 211k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 2,000 to 220,000 in the May 19 week after rising to 222,000 in the
previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the
coming week as the recent-low 209,000 level in the April 21 week drops
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there
are no revisions, remaining very low by historical standards.
Existing-home Sales for April (annual rate)
Thursday, May 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr18 Mar18 Feb18
Home Resales 5.58m 5.48m to 5.68m -- 5.60m 5.54m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to fall to a
5.58 annual rate in April after gains in the previous two months.
Pending home sales rose by 0.4% in March after rising sharply in
February, a small positive factor for existing home sales. Supply of
homes for sale remains extremely low, keeping prices elevated.
Durable Goods Orders for April (percent change)
Friday, May 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr18 Mar18 Feb18
New Orders -1.2% -2.5% to +1.7% -- +2.6% +4.5%
Ex-Transport +0.6% +0.3% to +1.2% -- -0.1% +1.3%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.2% in April
after a 2.6% gain in March. Boeing reported 78 orders in April, down
sharply from 197 orders reported in March, so aircraft orders are likely
to pull back after solid gains in the previous two months. Orders
excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.6%. Annual revisions
released on May 17 will be included with the data.
University of Michigan Survey for May (final)
Friday, May 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May18f May18p Apr18
Consumer Sent 98.8 98.5 to 99.0 -- 98.8 98.8
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised
from the preliminary May reading, unchanged from the level in April.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
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