US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                  

GDP for First Quarter (second estimate)                                 

 Wednesday, May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

               Median         Range                  1Q18s  1Q18a   4Q17

 GDP           +2.3%      +2.1% to +2.4%                --  +2.3%  +2.9%

 Chain Prices  +2.0%      +2.0% to +2.0%                --  +2.0%  +2.3%

     Comments: First quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 2.3%  

annual rate, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at 

a 2.0% rate, suggesting analysts see little excitement in the data and  

are focused on the second quarter.                                      

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 26 week                                   

 Thursday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                 Median       Range                  May26  May19  May12

 Weekly Claims   224k      215k to 223k                 --   234k   222k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 10,000 to 224,000 in the May 26 week after rising to 234,000 in the  

previous week, which brought claims back to more normal levels. The     

four-week moving average would rise by 3,250 in the coming week as the  

211,000 level in the April 28 week drops out of the calculation,        

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

Personal Income for April (percent change)                              

 Thursday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Income        +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.4%                --  +0.3%  +0.3%

 Spending      +0.4%      +0.3% to +0.5%                --  +0.4%   Flat

 Core Prices   +0.1%      +0.1% to +0.2%                --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in April, as 

payrolls rose 164,000, but hourly earnings advanced only 0.1% and       

average weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is        

forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.4% March gain. Total retail sales    

rose by 0.5% in the month and were still up 0.3% excluding a 0.1% gain  

in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building     

materials and food services were up 0.4%, indicating underlying strength

continued. The core PCE price index is expected to post a modest 0.1%   

increase in April following a 0.2% gain in March, so the year/year rate 

should remain near the 1.9% it reached in the previous month.           

MNI Chicago Report for May (index)                                      

 Thursday, May 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 MNI Chicago   58.1        56.6 to 59.5                 --   57.6   57.4

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to a reading     

of 58.1 in March after ticking up to 57.6 in April. Other regional data 

already released were generally stronger, with the Empire State,        

Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City and Richmond Fed readings all moving      

higher.                                                                 

Nonfarm Payrolls for May (change in thousands)                          

 Friday, June 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Payrolls      +194k      +169k to +217k                --  +164k  +135k

 Private Job   +200k      +165k to +217k                --  +168k  +135k

 Jobless Rate  3.9%        3.8% to 4.0%                 --   3.9%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.1%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs  34.5        34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 194,000 in May  

after a weaker-than-expected 164,000 rise in April. The unemployment    

rate is expected to hold steady at the 18-year low of 3.9%. Hourly      

earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% gain, while the average 

workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.    

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for May (mln units, saar)                  

 Friday, June 1                                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Sales Ex GM   --               --                      --   9.9m  10.2m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to hold roughly 

steady in May after slowing in April, though there is some downside risk

as seasonal adjustment factors will subtract significantly from         

unadjusted May sales after adding modestly to April sales.              

Construction Spending for April (percent change)                        

 Friday, June 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Construction  +0.8%      +0.5% to +1.0%                --  -1.7%  +1.0%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rose by 0.8% in     

April. Housing starts fell in the month, suggesting private residential 

building pulled back further after a large March dip.                   

ISM Manufacturing Index for May                                         

 Friday, June 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Mfg ISM       58.9        56.8 to 60.0                 --   57.3   59.3

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound       

modestly to a reading of 58.9 in May after declining further to 57.3 in 

April. Regional conditions data have pointed overwhelmingly to improved 

conditions.                                                                     

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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