US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

 Weekly Jobless Claims for July 21 week                                  

 Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jul21  Jul14  Jul07

 Weekly Claims  215k       215k to 217k                 --   207k   215k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 8,000 to 215,000 in the July 21 week after an 8,000 decline to       

207,000 in the previous week, the lowest level since 1969. Summer       

retooling shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The  

four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 in the coming week as the  

228,000 level in the June 23 week drops out of the calculation, assuming

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                 

Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)                          

 Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 New Orders    +3.5%        +1.5% to +6.0%              --  -0.4%  -1.0%

 Ex-Transport  +0.4%        +0.0% to +1.5%              --   Flat  +1.9%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to surge by 3.5% in    

June after a 0.4% decline in May. Boeing reported 233 orders in June, up

sharply from 43 orders in May, so aircraft orders are likely to surge in

the June report. Motor vehicles orders plunged in May, so a rebound is  

likely. New orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.4%   

after a flat reading in the previous month.                             

GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)                               

 Friday, July 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:          

               Median         Range                  2Q18a   1Q18   4Q17

 GDP           +4.5%        +3.7% to +4.8%              --  +2.0%  +2.9%

 Chain Prices  +2.1%        +1.5% to +2.4%              --  +2.2%  +2.3%

     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to rise 4.6% in the       

advance estimate after a 2.0% gain in the first quarter, with the key   

factors being stronger PCE growth, stronger nonresidential fixed        

investment growth, and a narrower net export gap. The chain price index 

is expected to rise by 2.1% in the second quarter after a 2.2% gain in  

the first quarter. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included   

with the data.                                                          

University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          

 Friday, July 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Jul18f Jul18p  Jun18

 Consumer Sent   97.3      97.0 to 97.6                 --   97.1   98.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up

very slightly to a reading of 97.3 in July from the 97.1 preliminary    

estimate.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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