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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 25/17:06 EST Jul 25
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
 Weekly Jobless Claims for July 21 week                                  
 Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jul21  Jul14  Jul07
 Weekly Claims  215k       215k to 217k                 --   207k   215k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 8,000 to 215,000 in the July 21 week after an 8,000 decline to       
207,000 in the previous week, the lowest level since 1969. Summer       
retooling shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The  
four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 in the coming week as the  
228,000 level in the June 23 week drops out of the calculation, assuming
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                 
Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)                          
 Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 New Orders    +3.5%        +1.5% to +6.0%              --  -0.4%  -1.0%
 Ex-Transport  +0.4%        +0.0% to +1.5%              --   Flat  +1.9%
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to surge by 3.5% in    
June after a 0.4% decline in May. Boeing reported 233 orders in June, up
sharply from 43 orders in May, so aircraft orders are likely to surge in
the June report. Motor vehicles orders plunged in May, so a rebound is  
likely. New orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.4%   
after a flat reading in the previous month.                             
GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)                               
 Friday, July 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:          
               Median         Range                  2Q18a   1Q18   4Q17
 GDP           +4.5%        +3.7% to +4.8%              --  +2.0%  +2.9%
 Chain Prices  +2.1%        +1.5% to +2.4%              --  +2.2%  +2.3%
     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to rise 4.6% in the       
advance estimate after a 2.0% gain in the first quarter, with the key   
factors being stronger PCE growth, stronger nonresidential fixed        
investment growth, and a narrower net export gap. The chain price index 
is expected to rise by 2.1% in the second quarter after a 2.2% gain in  
the first quarter. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included   
with the data.                                                          
University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          
 Friday, July 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Jul18f Jul18p  Jun18
 Consumer Sent   97.3      97.0 to 97.6                 --   97.1   98.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up
very slightly to a reading of 97.3 in July from the 97.1 preliminary    
estimate.                                                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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