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Free AccessMNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI Credit Weekly: Le Vendredi Noir
US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 25/17:06 EST Jul 25
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 21 week
Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul21 Jul14 Jul07
Weekly Claims 215k 215k to 217k -- 207k 215k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 8,000 to 215,000 in the July 21 week after an 8,000 decline to
207,000 in the previous week, the lowest level since 1969. Summer
retooling shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The
four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 in the coming week as the
228,000 level in the June 23 week drops out of the calculation, assuming
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)
Thursday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
New Orders +3.5% +1.5% to +6.0% -- -0.4% -1.0%
Ex-Transport +0.4% +0.0% to +1.5% -- Flat +1.9%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to surge by 3.5% in
June after a 0.4% decline in May. Boeing reported 233 orders in June, up
sharply from 43 orders in May, so aircraft orders are likely to surge in
the June report. Motor vehicles orders plunged in May, so a rebound is
likely. New orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.4%
after a flat reading in the previous month.
GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)
Friday, July 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 2Q18a 1Q18 4Q17
GDP +4.5% +3.7% to +4.8% -- +2.0% +2.9%
Chain Prices +2.1% +1.5% to +2.4% -- +2.2% +2.3%
Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to rise 4.6% in the
advance estimate after a 2.0% gain in the first quarter, with the key
factors being stronger PCE growth, stronger nonresidential fixed
investment growth, and a narrower net export gap. The chain price index
is expected to rise by 2.1% in the second quarter after a 2.2% gain in
the first quarter. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included
with the data.
University of Michigan Survey for July (final)
Friday, July 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18f Jul18p Jun18
Consumer Sent 97.3 97.0 to 97.6 -- 97.1 98.2
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up
very slightly to a reading of 97.3 in July from the 97.1 preliminary
estimate.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.