US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 4 week                               

 Thursday, August 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug04  Jul28  Jul21

 Weekly Claims   220k     216k to 220k                  --   218k   217k

          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 

steady at 220,000 in the August 4, keeping claims in a fairly tight range 

that has slowly trended lower over the last month. The four-week moving 

average would rise by only 1,250 in the coming week as the 215,000 level 

in the July 7 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is

correct and there are no revisions. 

Producer Price Index for July (percent change)

 Thursday, August 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Final Demand     +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.5% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.3%

          Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in July 

after larger gains in the previous two months. Energy prices are expected 

to slow following a 0.8% June increase and a 4.6% surge in May, while food 

prices are expected to rebound after a 1.1% decline. Excluding food and energy

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after 0.3% gains in the previous two

months. 

Consumer Price Index for July (percent change)                       

 Friday, August 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jul18  Jun18  May18

 CPI           +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2% 

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%

          Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in July after a 0.1% 

gain in June. The year/year rates should rise further due to a soft 

reading a year ago. AAA reported a modest decline in mid-month prices 

from June, which could soften seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices. 

The core CPI is also forecast to rise 0.2% following an as-expected 0.2% 

increase in June. 

Treasury Statement for July ($ billions)                           

 Friday, August 10 at 2:00 p.m ET                        Actual:        

             Median           Range              Jul18    Jun18    Jul17

 Balance    -$76.7b    -$76.0b to -$77.3b           --  -$74.9b  -$42.9b

          Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $76.7 billion 

budget gap for July, much larger than the $42.9 billion gap in July 

2017. The impact of the tax cuts should continue to be seen in the data 

in the form of lower receipts that are fueling wider deficits.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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