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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 12/17:06 EST Aug 12
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)                         
 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Retail Sales   +0.1%    -0.4% to +0.4%                 --  +0.5%  +1.3%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.4%    +0.0% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +1.4%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.1% in July after a
0.5% gain in June and a 1.3% jump in May. Not seasonally adjusted       
industry motor vehicle sales slowed a bit in July, while AAA reported   
that gasoline prices halted their sharp gains, falling in mid-July from 
one month earlier, the latter reflected in a decline in CPI gasoline    
prices. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles 
after a 0.4% rise in June, while analysts see the core measures breaking
out of the recent trend of solid gains. If the data are in line with    
expectations, it suggests continued sales growth, but at a much slower  
pace than in the second quarter.                                        
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                   Median           Range           2Q18p    1Q18   4Q17
 Productivity       +2.5%      +1.8% to +2.5%          --   +0.4%  +0.3%
 Unit Labor Costs   -0.5%      -0.6% to -0.1%          --   +2.9%  +2.5%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.5% in the     
second quarter after modest gains in the previous two quarter, lifted by
the much stronger output data in the GDP report. Unit labor cost growth 
is expected fall by 0.5% from 2.9% in the first quarter.                
Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)                         
 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Empire Index      19.0    18.0 to 20.8                 --   22.6   25.0
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall to a reading  
of 19.0 in August after falling to 22.6 in July.                        
Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         
 Wednesday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Ind Prod      +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.6%  -0.5%
 Cap Util      78.2%     78.1% to 78.2%                 --  78.0%  77.7%
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in July   
after a rebound in June. Factory payrolls rose by 37,000 in June, while 
auto production jobs rose by 6,000 and the factory workweek was         
unchanged at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 58.5 in the   
current month from 62.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is  
expected to continue its downward trend in the month , while mining     
production is forecast to post a sixth straight gain. Capacity          
utilization is forecast to rise slightly to 78.2% from 78.0% in June.   
Business Inventories for June (percent change)                          
 Wednesday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Inventories   +0.1%      +0.1% to +0.1%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.1% in June.  
Factory inventories were already reported up 0.1% in the month, while   
wholesale inventories rose 0.1%. The advance report showed a flat       
reading for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks
for a 0.1% increase for business inventories, so the median forecast    
suggests analysts see no revision to retail inventories. As for sales,  
factory shipments were up 1.0%, wholesale sales fell by 0.1% and the    
advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% gain, suggesting a   
0.4% gain for business sales, assuming no large revision to the retail  
trade sales increase.                                                   
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 11 week                                
 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Aug11  Aug04  Jul28
 Weekly Claims   214k     213k to 214k                  --   213k   219k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 1,000 to 214,000 in the August 11 week after a decrease of 6,000 to  
213,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by
1,500 in the coming week as the decades-low 208,000 level in the July 14
week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 
and there are no revisions. Still, the average would be extremely low.  
Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          
 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Starts    1.256m      1.200m to 1.274m                 -- 1.173m 1.337m
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        
expected to rebound to a 1.256 million annual rate in July after falling
sharply in June. The NAHB index held steady at 68 in July. As           
inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to  
boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to tick up only  
slightly to a 1.295 million rate from the revised 1.292 million rate in 
June.                                                                   
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         
 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Phila Fed         22.0    20.7 to 22.5                 --   25.7   19.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      
reading of 22.0 in August after rebounding to 25.7 in July.             
Leading Indicators for July (percent change)                            
 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.4% to +0.5%               --  +0.5%   Unch
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   
0.5% in July. Positive contributions are expected from a dip in initial 
claims and higher stock prices, offset by a drop in consumer            
expectations and lower ISM new orders.                                  
University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  
 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      
                Median        Range                 Aug18p  Jul18  Jun18
 Consumer Sent    98.4    97.0 to 99.0                  --   97.9   98.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rebound to   
98.4 in early-August after dipping to 97.8 in July. The data suggest    
little concern at this point about the impacts of a trade war.          
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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