US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 15/17:06 EST Aug 15

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 11 week                                

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Aug11  Aug04  Jul28

 Weekly Claims   214k     213k to 216k                  --   213k   219k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 1,000 to 214,000 in the August 11 week after a decrease of 6,000 to  

213,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by

1,500 in the coming week as the decades-low 208,000 level in the July 14

week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions. Still, the average would be extremely low.  

Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Starts    1.270m      1.200m to 1.300m                 -- 1.173m 1.337m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rebound to a 1.270 million annual rate in July after falling

sharply in June. The NAHB index held steady at 68 in July. As           

inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to  

boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to tick up to a  

1.313 million rate from the revised 1.292 million rate in June.         

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         

 Thursday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Phila Fed         22.0    20.7 to 23.8                 --   25.7   19.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      

reading of 22.0 in August after rebounding to 25.7 in July.             

Leading Indicators for July (percent change)                            

 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Leading Index    +0.4%    +0.4% to +0.5%               --  +0.5%   Unch

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.4% in July. Positive contributions are expected from a dip in initial 

claims and higher stock prices, offset by a drop in consumer            

expectations and lower ISM new orders.                                  

University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  

 Friday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

                Median        Range                 Aug18p  Jul18  Jun18

 Consumer Sent    98.4    97.0 to 99.0                  --   97.9   98.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rebound to   

98.4 in early-August after dipping to 97.8 in July. The data suggest    

little concern at this point about the impacts of a trade war.          

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]