US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August (index)                 

 Tuesday, August 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:      

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Confidence     126.5    125.0 to 127.4                 --  127.4  127.1

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to decline  

to a reading of 126.5 in August after rising very slightly in July on an

improvement in the present situation reading. Stabile gas prices and    

rising stocks prices are positive factors for another gain. The         

expectations reading, however, slipped in July. The Michigan Sentiment  

Index fell to 95.3 in early-August from 97.9 in July.                   

GDP for Second Quarter (second estimate)                                

 Wednesday, August 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  2Q18s  2Q18a   1Q18

 GDP            +4.0%    +3.9% to +4.2%                 --  +4.1%  +2.2%

 Chain Prices   +3.0%    +3.0% to +3.0%                 --  +3.0%  +2.0%

     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised down        

slightly to a 4.0% pace of growth from the 4.1% advance estimate        

generally on softer PCE growth reflected in the downward adjustment to  

retail sales in May and June. The chain price index is forecast to be   

unrevised at 3.0%.                                                      

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 25 week                                

 Thursday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Aug25  Aug18  Aug11

 Weekly Claims   214k     213k to 214k                  --   210k   212k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 4,000 to 214,000 in the August 25 week after a decrease of   

2,000 to 210,000 in the previous week, just above the recent low of     

208,000. The four-week moving average would fall by 1,250 in the coming 

week as the 219,000 level in the July 28 week rolls out of the          

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      

revisions.                                                              

Personal Income for July (percent change)                               

 Thursday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Spending       +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.6%                 --  +0.4%  +0.5%

 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, as  

payrolls rose by 157,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while average   

weekly hours fell to 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise 

by 0.4% after a softer-than-expected 0.4% June gain. Total retail sales 

rose by 0.5% in the month and were up 0.6% excluding a 0.2% gain in     

motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building        

materials and food services were rose 0.5% after a 0.1% June decline.   

The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in June, so

the y/y rate could tick back up to 2.0% due to a softer 0.1% increase a 

year earlier.                                                           

MNI Chicago Report for August (index)                                   

 Friday, August 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 MNI Chicago     63.0     62.0 to 64.8                  --   65.5   64.1

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slide back to a       

reading of 63.0 in August after rising further to 65.5 in July. Other   

regional data already released have been generally softer, with sharp   

declines in the Kansas City and Philadelphia Fed regions and only a     

modest gain in the NY Fed data.                                         

University of Michigan Survey for August (final)                        

 Friday, August 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

                Median        Range                 Aug18f Aug18p  Jul18

 Consumer Sent    95.3    95.3 to 95.5                  --   95.3   97.9

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 

from the reading of 95.3 in the preliminary estimate.                   

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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