US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

{US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts>}

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI 

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Producer Price Index for August (percent change)

 Wednesday, September 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Final Demand     +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.5%               --   Flat  +0.3% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.1%  +0.3%

          Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in August after 

a flat July reading. Energy prices are expected to rebound following a 

0.5% July decrease, while food prices are expected to tick higher after 

a 0.1% decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to 

rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% July increase. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 8 week                                

 Thursday, September 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Sep08  Sep01  Aug25

 Weekly Claims   209k     203k to 210k                  --   203k   213k

          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 6,000 to 209,000 in the September 8 holiday-shortened week 

after a decrease of 10,000 to 203,000 in the previous week, another 

49-year low. Any comparison to a year ago is tainted by the hurricanes 

that hit in early-September 2017. The four-week moving average would 

fall by 750 in the coming week as the 212,000 level in the August 11 

week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions. This would be another 49-year low. 

Consumer Price Index for August (percent change)                       

 Thursday, September 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 CPI           +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                  --  +0.2%  +0.1% 

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%

          Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August after a 0.2% 

gain in July. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from 

July, but seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices could see a modest 

gain. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% again following an 

as-expected 0.2% increase in July. 

Treasury Statement for August ($ billions)                           

 Thursday, September 13 at 2:00 p.m ET                   Actual:        

             Median           Range              Aug18    Jul18    Aug17

 Balance   -$183.0b   -$216.0b to -$178.0b          --  -$76.9b -$107.7b

          Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $183.0 billion 

budget gap in August, much larger than the $107.7 billion gap in August 

2017, keeping with the much larger deficits seen this fiscal year. 

Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)                       

 Friday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Retail Sales   +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%

          Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in August after a 

surprise 0.5% gain in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 

vehicle sales rose slightly in August, but AAA reported that gasoline 

prices slipped modestly in mid-August from one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 

0.6% rise in July, further sign of underlying strength in the third 

quarter. 

Industrial Production for August (percent change)

 Friday, September 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Ind Prod      +0.4%     -0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +1.0% 

 Cap Util      78.3%     78.1% to 78.5%                 --  78.1%  78.1% 

          Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in August 

after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in August, 

while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory workweek was 

unchanged at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index jumped to 

63.3 in the current month from 58.5 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to move higher in the month on the 

hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in the previous month, 

while mining production is forecast to resume their upward path after 

declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July. 

Business Inventories for July (percent change)                      

 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Inventories   +0.6%      +0.5% to +0.6%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%

          Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in 

July. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8% in the month, 

while the advance report showed wholesale inventories rose 0.7% and 

retail inventories rose 0.4%. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks 

for a 0.6% increase for business inventories at this point, so the 

median forecast suggests analysts see downward revisions to retail 

and/or wholesale inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were flat 

and the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.4% gain, so the 

data suggest business sales was only mildly positive in the month 

pending the data on wholesale sales and any revision to retail trade 

sales. 

University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)          

 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Sep18p  Aug18  Jul18

 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.0 to 98.2                  --   96.2   97.9

          Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 97.0 

in early-September from 96.2 in August.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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