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     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Producer Price Index for August (percent change)
 Wednesday, September 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Final Demand     +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.5%               --   Flat  +0.3% 
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.1%  +0.3%
          Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in August after 
a flat July reading. Energy prices are expected to rebound following a 
0.5% July decrease, while food prices are expected to tick higher after 
a 0.1% decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to 
rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% July increase. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 8 week                                
 Thursday, September 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Sep08  Sep01  Aug25
 Weekly Claims   209k     203k to 210k                  --   203k   213k
          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 
rebound by 6,000 to 209,000 in the September 8 holiday-shortened week 
after a decrease of 10,000 to 203,000 in the previous week, another 
49-year low. Any comparison to a year ago is tainted by the hurricanes 
that hit in early-September 2017. The four-week moving average would 
fall by 750 in the coming week as the 212,000 level in the August 11 
week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 
and there are no revisions. This would be another 49-year low. 
Consumer Price Index for August (percent change)                       
 Thursday, September 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 CPI           +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                  --  +0.2%  +0.1% 
 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%
          Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August after a 0.2% 
gain in July. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from 
July, but seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices could see a modest 
gain. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% again following an 
as-expected 0.2% increase in July. 
Treasury Statement for August ($ billions)                           
 Thursday, September 13 at 2:00 p.m ET                   Actual:        
             Median           Range              Aug18    Jul18    Aug17
 Balance   -$183.0b   -$216.0b to -$178.0b          --  -$76.9b -$107.7b
          Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $183.0 billion 
budget gap in August, much larger than the $107.7 billion gap in August 
2017, keeping with the much larger deficits seen this fiscal year. 
Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)                       
 Friday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Retail Sales   +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%
          Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in August after a 
surprise 0.5% gain in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 
vehicle sales rose slightly in August, but AAA reported that gasoline 
prices slipped modestly in mid-August from one month earlier. Retail 
sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 
0.6% rise in July, further sign of underlying strength in the third 
quarter. 
Industrial Production for August (percent change)
 Friday, September 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Ind Prod      +0.4%     -0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +1.0% 
 Cap Util      78.3%     78.1% to 78.5%                 --  78.1%  78.1% 
          Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in August 
after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in August, 
while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory workweek was 
unchanged at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index jumped to 
63.3 in the current month from 58.5 in the previous month. Utilities 
production is expected to move higher in the month on the 
hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in the previous month, 
while mining production is forecast to resume their upward path after 
declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity 
utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July. 
Business Inventories for July (percent change)                      
 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Inventories   +0.6%      +0.5% to +0.6%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%
          Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in 
July. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8% in the month, 
while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%, and the advance report showed 
retail inventories rose 0.4%. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks 
for a 0.6% increase for business inventories at this point, so the 
median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to retail 
inventories. As for sales, both factory shipments and wholesale 
inventories were flat and the advance estimate for retail trade sales 
was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales was only mildly 
positive in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales. 
University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)          
 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Sep18p  Aug18  Jul18
 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.0 to 98.2                  --   96.2   97.9
          Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 97.0 
in early-September from 96.2 in August.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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