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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)
Friday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
Retail Sales +0.4% +0.3% to +0.5% -- +0.5% +0.2%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.5% +0.3% to +0.7% -- +0.6% +0.2%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in August after a
surprise 0.5% gain in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor
vehicle sales rose slightly in August, but AAA reported that gasoline
prices slipped modestly in mid-August from one month earlier. However,
strength in CPI gas prices suggsest that category could be up as well.
Retail sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles
after a 0.6% rise in July, a further sign of underlying strength in the
third quarter.
Industrial Production for August (percent change)
Friday, September 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
Ind Prod +0.4% -0.3% to +0.7% -- +0.1% +1.0%
Cap Util 78.3% 78.1% to 78.5% -- 78.1% 78.1%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in August
after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in August,
while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory workweek was
unchanged at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index jumped to
63.3 in the current month from 58.5 in the previous month. Utilities
production is expected to move higher in the month on the
hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in the previous month,
while mining production is forecast to resume their upward path after
declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity
utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July.
Business Inventories for July (percent change)
Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
Inventories +0.6% +0.5% to +0.6% -- +0.1% +0.3%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in
July. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8% in the month,
while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%, and the advance report showed
retail inventories rose 0.4%. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks
for a 0.6% increase for business inventories at this point, so the
median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to retail
inventories. As for sales, both factory shipments and wholesale
inventories were flat and the advance estimate for retail trade sales
was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales was only mildly
positive in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales.
University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)
Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep18p Aug18 Jul18
Consumer Sent 97.0 96.0 to 98.2 -- 96.2 97.9
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 97.0
in early-September from 96.2 in August.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.