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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 18/17:06 EST Sep 18
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Housing Starts for August (annual rate, million)                        
 Wednesday, September 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Starts    1.240m      1.220m to 1.253m                 -- 1.168m 1.158m
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        
expected to rise further to a 1.245 million annual rate in August after 
moving up slightly in July. Multi-family building is seen as key upside 
factor. The NAHB index fell to 67 in August. As inventories remain      
tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost output. The   
pace of building permits is expected to rise to a 1.320 million annual  
rate from the revised 1.303 million rate in July.                       
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 15 week                             
 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Sep15  Sep08  Sep01
 Weekly Claims   208k     205k to 208k                  --   204k   205k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 4,000 to a still-low 208,000 level in the September 15 employment    
survey week after a decrease to 204,000 in the previous week, a 49-year 
low. Claims were at a level of 210,000 in the August 18 employment      
survey week. The four-week moving average would fall by 500 in the      
coming week as that 210,000 level rolls out of the calculation, assuming
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. There will be no
impact from Hurricane Florence in this week's data, but it may begin to 
show up in the following week's data.                                   
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for September (diffusion index)      
 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Phila Fed         20.0    18.0 to 21.1                 --   11.9   25.7
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to a      
reading of 20.0 in September after falling sharply to 11.9 in August.   
Existing-home Sales for August (annual rate)                            
 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
                 Median       Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Home Resales     5.35m  5.32m to 5.61m                 --  5.34m  5.38m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to tick up   
very slightly to a 5.35 million annual rate in August after slipping    
further to a 5.34 million rate in July. Pending home sales fell by 0.7% 
in July, a negative sign for existing home sales. The supply of homes   
for sale remains much too low to match demand and bring down prices.    
Leading Indicators for August (percent change)                          
 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:      
                 Median         Range                Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.5% to +0.5%               --  +0.6%  +0.5%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   
0.5% in August. Positive contributions are expected from gains in stock 
prices, the ISM new orders index, and consumer expectations, and        
slightly lower initial jobless claims. A shorter factory workweek could 
provide some offset.                                                    
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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