US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for September (index)

 Tuesday, September 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median            Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Confidence    120.0     118.0 to 121.9                 --  122.9    0.0

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall to a 

reading of 120.0 in September after a further increase in August, as the 

impact of Hurricanes and Irma weighed on confidence. The Michigan 

Sentiment Index fell to 95.3 in early-September from 96.8 in the 

previous month. 

Durable Goods Orders for August (percent change)

 Wednesday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 

 New Orders     +0.8%     -0.6% to 2.8%                 --  -6.8%  +6.4% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.3%      Flat to 0.7%                 --  +0.6%   Flat

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in 

August after a 6.8% plunge in July, as analysts expect little hurricane 

impact. Boeing orders rebounded to 33 after falling to 22 in July, 

suggesting nondefense aircraft orders should rebound. Orders excluding 

transportation are expected to rise 0.3% after a 0.6% increase in July. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 23 week                                   

 Thursday, September 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Sep23  Sep16  Sep09

 Weekly Claims      265k   250k to 300k                 --   259k   282k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 6,000 to 265,000 in the September 23 week after a 23,000 

decline in the previous week. Initial and continuing filings in 

hurricane-impact regions should begin to show any back-logged claims in 

areas where filing could not occur in previous weeks. Seasonal factors 

expect a slight unadjusted decrease this week, so any unadjusted gain 

would translate into a larger adjusted increase. The four-week moving 

average would rise by 7,250 in the coming week as the 236,000 level in 

the August 26 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI 

forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

GDP for Second Quarter (third estimate)

 Thursday, September 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median        Range                   2Q17t  2Q17s   1Q17

 GDP            +3.0%     +3.0% to 3.2%                 --  +3.0%  +1.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.0%     +1.0% to 1.0%                 --  +1.0%  +2.0%

     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to remain unrevised at a 

3.0% gain in the second estimate, while looking ahead to a softer 3Q 

growth pace. Analysts expect business fixed investment and inventories 

to be revised up. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 

1.0% rate of growth. 

Personal Income for August (percent change)                          

 Friday, September 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:     

              Median          Range                  Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Income       +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.4%   Flat 

 Spending     +0.1%       Flat to +0.2%               --  +0.3%  +0.2%

 Core Prices  +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%               --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise a more modest 0.2% in 

August, as payrolls rose by only 156,000, average weekly hours slipped 

to 34.4 hours and hourly earnings rose a modest 0.1%. Current dollar PCE 

is forecast to tick up by 0.1%, as retail sales fell 0.2% in the month 

and were up only 0.2% excluding a 1.6% decline in motor vehicle sales. 

Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were down 0.1% in the month, while 

sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services fell 

0.2%, indicating underlying weakness partially resulting from the 

hurricanes. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase 

in August, reflecting the stronger CPI gain. The year/year gain should 

remain below 2%. 

MNI Chicago Report for September (index)                                 

 Friday, September 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET                    Actual:     

              Median        Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 MNI Chicago    59.0       58.0 to 60.0                 --   58.9   58.9

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise modestly to a 

reading of 59.0 in September after holding steady at 58.9 in August. 

Other regional data already released suggest solid growth. 

University of Michigan Survey for September (final)          

 Friday, September 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Sep17f Sep17p  Aug17

 Consumer Sent    95.3     94.5 to 96.0                --   95.3   96.8

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised  

from the 95.3 preliminary estimate, with a downside risk as further 

hurricane impacts should be seen.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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