US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 29 week                             

 Thursday, October 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep29  Sep22  Sep15

 Weekly Claims   216k     210k to 220k                  --   214k   202k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 2,000 to a 216,000 level in the September 29 week after an increase  

of 12,000 to 214,000 in the previous week as the impact of Hurricane    

Florence was partially observed. The four-week moving average would rise

by 2,750 in the coming week as the 205,000 level in the September 1 week

rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Factory Orders for August (percent change)                              

 Thursday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 New Orders     +2.2%    +1.0% to +2.5%                 --  -0.8%  +0.6%

 Ex Transport      --       -- to --                    --  +0.2%  +0.4%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 2.1% in August.   

Durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in the month on a jump in             

transportation orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise    

modestly on an increase in energy prices. Durable orders excluding      

transportation were up only 0.1%, so total factory orders excluding     

transportation are expected to post another small gain.                 

Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                    

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 

 Payrolls       +182k    +163k to +220k                --  +201k  +147k 

 Private Jobs   +185k    +160k to +206k                --  +204k  +153k 

 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.8% to 3.9%                 --   3.9%   3.9% 

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.3% 

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5 

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 182,000 in      

September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The    

effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very   

late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to   

3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are

forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months,  

but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due to the hurricanes that month      

should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is     

expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours.                

Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)             

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Trade Gap    -$53.4b  -$54.0b to -$47.2b             -- -$50.1b -$45.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.4

billion in August from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of   

the Census goods trade gap widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports 

fell and imports rose.                                                  

Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                    

 Friday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Cons Cred   +$14.5b +$10.0b to +$16.0b               -- +$16.6b  +$8.5b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.5 billion in  

August after a solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up   

only 0.1% in August overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor  

vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed.                

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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