US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 6 week                                

 Thursday, October 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct06  Sep29  Sep22

 Weekly Claims   206k     200k to 206k                  --   207k   215k

     Comment: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by

1,000 to a 206,000 level in the October 6 week after a decrease of 8,000

to 207,000 in the previous week as the impact of Hurricane Florence in  

the affected areas were largely offset by continued improvement in other

parts of the country. The four-week moving average would rise by only   

500 in the coming week as the 204,000 level in the September 8 week     

rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)                     

 Thursday, October 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 CPI           +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.2%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments:  The CPI is expected to post another 0.2% gain, same as  

in August. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices from August,

which could reduce seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a sharp

gain in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%       

following an softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in August.              

Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           

 Thursday, October 11 at 2:00 p.m ET (subject to change) Actual:        

             Median           Range              Sep18    Aug18    Sep17

 Balance    +$62.0b    +$62.0b to +$62.0b           -- -$214.2b   +$7.9b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $62.0 billion      

surplus in September, finishing off a fiscal year deficit that is       

substantially larger than the $665.8 billion gap in the previous fiscal 

year. Some September transfer payments were shifted in August, allowing 

the September 2018 surplus to be larger than the $7.9 billion surplus in

September 2017.                                                         

University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)                 

 Friday, October 12 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Oct18p  Sep18  Aug18

 Consumer Sent   100.6    98.0 to 101.8                 --  100.1   96.2

     Comments: The University of Michigan's sentiment index is expected 

to increase slightly in early-October from the 100.1 reading seen in    

September.                                                              

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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