US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Empire State Index for October (diffusion index)

 Monday, October 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Empire Index      20.0    18.0 to 21.4                 --   19.0   25.6

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to rise to 20.0 in 

October after a dip to 19.0 in September.

Retail and Food Sales for September (percent change)                       

 Monday, October 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Retail Sales   +0.6%    +0.5% to +0.8%                 --  +0.1%  +0.7%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.7%                 --  +0.3%  +0.9%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in September after 

a weaker than expected 0.1% gain in August. Not seasonally adjusted 

industry motor vehicle sales were modestly stronger in September, while 

AAA reported that gasoline prices slipped modestly in mid-September from 

one month earlier. Sales may have been held back in North Carolina and 

South Carolina due to Hurricane Florence, but the building materials 

sales should be boosted in the coming months by the rebuilding efforts. 

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after a 

0.3% rise in August. Analysts see solid gains for the control readings 

as well, a strong ending for third quarter consumption. 

Business Inventories for August (percent change)                      

 Monday, October 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Inventories    +0.6%    +0.5% to +0.6%                 --  +0.6%  +0.1%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in 

August. Factory inventories were already reported as down 0.1% in the 

month, while wholesale inventories rose 1.0%, and the advance report 

showed retail inventories up 0.7%. Taken together, an MNI calculation 

looks for a 0.5% increase for business inventories at this point, so the 

median forecast suggests analysts see an upward revision to retail 

inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.5% and wholesale 

sales were up 0.8%, while the advance estimate for retail trade sales 

was a 0.1% gain, so the data suggest business sales were up 0.5% in the 

month pending any revision to retail trade sales. 

Industrial Production for September (percent change)

 Tuesday, October 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Ind Prod      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.6%                  --  +0.4%  +0.4% 

 Cap Util      78.2%    78.0% to 78.3%                  --  78.1%  77.9% 

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in 

September on a utilities surge that should be offset by softer readings 

for manufacturing and mining production. Factory payrolls rose by 18,000 

in September, but auto production jobs were flat and the factory 

workweek shortened to 40.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 63.9 

in the current month from 63.3 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to rise further in the month due to unseasonably 

warm temperatures, while mining production is forecast to maintain its 

string of gains, albeit a bit slower. Capacity utilization is forecast 

to tick up to 78.2% from 78.1% in August. 

Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million) 

 Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Starts    1.230m      1.187m to 1.251m                 -- 1.282m 1.174m 

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is 

expected to slow to a 1.230 million annual rate in September after 

moving up slightly in August. The NAHB index held steady at 67 in 

September. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it 

advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected 

to rise to a 1.266 million annual rate after falling sharply in August. 

Rebuilding following Hurricane Florence should lift permits and starts 

in coming months. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 13 week                                

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Oct15  Oct06  Sep29

 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 215k                  --   214k   207k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by only 1,000 to a 213,000 level in the October 13 employment survey 

week after an increase of 7,000 to a still-low 214,000 level in the 

previous week. While the impact of Hurricane Florence should continue to 

move out of the data, Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10 and 

should lift initial claims further and impact the survey week for 

payrolls. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the coming 

week as the recent low 202,000 level in the September 15 employment 

survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 

correct and there are no revisions. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Phila Fed         18.0    16.2 to 20.0                 --   22.9   11.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to slip to a 

reading of 18.0 in October after rebounding to 22.9 in September.

Leading Indicators for September (percent change)

 Thursday, October 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:

                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Leading Index    +0.4%    +0.4% to +0.4%               --  +0.4%  +0.7%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 

0.4% in September. Positive contributions are expected from increases in 

stock prices and consumer expectations. 

Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                           

 Friday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 

 Home Resales     5.30m   5.27m to 5.38m                --  5.34m  5.34m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 

5.30 million annual rate in September after holding steady in August. 

Pending home sales fell by 1.8% in August, a negative sign for existing 

home sales.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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