Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million)                     
 Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Starts    1.220m      1.181m to 1.250m                 -- 1.282m 1.174m
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        
expected to slow to a 1.220 million annual rate in September after      
moving up slightly in August. The NAHB index held steady at 67 in       
September. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it    
advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected  
to rise to a 1.260 million annual rate after falling sharply in August. 
Rebuilding following Hurricane Florence should lift permits and starts  
in coming months.                                                       
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 13 week                               
 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct15  Oct06  Sep29
 Weekly Claims   210k     205k to 216k                  --   214k   207k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 4,000 to a 210,000 level in the October 13 employment survey         
week after an increase of 7,000 to a still-low 214,000 level in the     
previous week. While the impact of Hurricane Florence should continue to
move out of the data, Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10 and   
should lift initial claims further and impact the survey week for       
payrolls. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,000 in the coming
week as the recent low 202,000 level in the September 15 employment     
survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is  
correct and there are no revisions.                                     
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)        
 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Phila Fed         18.5    16.2 to 20.0                 --   22.9   11.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to slip to a      
reading of 18.5 in October after rebounding to 22.9 in September.       
Leading Indicators for September (percent change)                       
 Thursday, October 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.4% to +0.6%               --  +0.4%  +0.7%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   
0.5% in September. Positive contributions are expected from increases in
stock prices and consumer expectations.                                 
Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                         
 Friday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median       Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Home Resales     5.27m   5.25m to 5.38m                --  5.34m  5.34m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 
5.27 million annual rate in September after holding steady in August.   
Pending home sales fell by 1.8% in August, a negative sign for existing 
home sales.                                                             
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.