US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Employment Cost Index for Third Quarter (percent change)

 Wednesday, October 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median       Range                   3Q18   2Q18   1Q18

 ECI              +0.7%  +0.7% to +0.8%                 --  +0.6%  +0.8%

     Comments: The employment cost index is expected to rise by 0.7% in 

the third quarter after a 0.6% gain in the second quarter, lifted by a 

rebound in wage growth. 

MNI Chicago Report for October (index)                                 

 Wednesday, October 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 MNI Chicago     60.0     59.0 to 61.1                  --   60.4   63.6

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to dip slightly to a 

reading of 60.0 reading. Other regional data already released have been 

mixed, with the Empire State reading up, the Philadelphia Fed reading 

roughly unchanged, and the Richmond Fed survey down. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 27 week                                

 Thursday, November 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Oct27  Oct20  Oct13

 Weekly Claims   215k     212k to 217k                  --   215k   210k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 

steady at a 215,000 level in the October 27 week after an increase of 

5,000 to 215,000 level in the previous week on gains in the hurricane 

impacted regions. The impact of Hurricane Michael is likely to continue 

for several more weeks, but overall level of claims remains remarkably 

low. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,000 in the coming week 

as the 207,000 level in the September 29 rolls out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, November 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range           3Q18p    2Q18   1Q18

 Productivity       +2.6%      +1.8% to +3.5%          --   +2.9%  +0.3% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +0.6%      +0.3% to +1.6%          --   -1.0%  +3.4%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to a 2.6% annual 

rate in the preliminary third quarter estimate after 2.9% gain in the 

second quarter, as the output component should reflect the modest 

slowdown in the GDP growth. Unit labor costs are expected to rise by 

0.6% after a 1.0% decline in the second quarter. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for October (mln units, saar)                  

 Thursday, November 1                                    Actual:

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Sales Ex GM       --          --                       --  10.2m  10.1m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 

hold roughly steady at 10.2 million in October after rising modestly in 

September. Seasonal adjustment factors will be a larger addition to 

October unadjusted sales that they were in the previous month. 

Construction Spending for September (percent change)                        

 Thursday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Construction   +0.1%    +0.0% to +0.5%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.1% in 

September after a 0.1% August gain. Housing starts fell further in the 

month, partially due to the impact of Hurricane Florence, a negative for 

private residential building. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for October                                       

 Thursday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Mfg ISM         59.0     58.0 to 60.0                  --   59.8   61.3

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip to a 

still-strong reading of 59.0 in October after falling back to 59.8 in 

September. Regional conditions data have suggested continued solid 

growth, though a decline in the Richmond manufacturing index is a 

negative factor. The flash Markit manufacturing index rose to 55.9 in 

October from 55.6 in September. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18 

 Payrolls       +190k    +160k to +231k                --  +134k  +270k

 Private Jobs   +190k    +175k to +205k                --  +121k  +254k

 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.8%                 --   3.7%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in 

October after a much weaker-than-expected rise of 134,000 in September 

that was partially due to effects from Hurricane Florence. This month's 

data could be strongly impacted by the effects of Hurricane Michael, 

which hit land on October 10 in the middle of the survey week, so there 

is downside risk to forecasts. The unemployment rate is expected to hold 

steady at 3.7%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after solid 

gains in the previous three months, while the average workweek is 

expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month, but could show 

the impact of Hurricane Michael. The year/year rate for hourly earnings 

dipped to 2.8% in September but is likely to rebound in October on base 

effects from a 0.2% monthly decline in earnings in October 2017. 

Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                Sep18   Aug18   Jul18

 Trade Gap    -$53.5b  -$54.4b to -$51.4b             -- -$53.2b -$50.0b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen modestly 

to $53.5 billion in September from $53.2 billion in August. The advance 

estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $76.0 billion, 

as imports rose faster than exports. 

Factory Orders for September (percent change)                             

 Friday, November 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18  

 New Orders     +0.5%    +0.0% to +0.6%                 --  +2.3%  -0.5%

 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.5% in September. 

Durable goods orders rose by 0.8% in the month on a surprise increase in 

defense aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to dip on 

a decrease in energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation 

were up only 0.1%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are 

expected to be roughly flat.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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