US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Nov 1/18:06 EST Nov 1

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18 

 Payrolls       +190k    +160k to +231k                --  +134k  +270k

 Private Jobs   +190k    +175k to +205k                --  +121k  +254k

 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.8%                 --   3.7%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in 

October after a much weaker-than-expected rise of 134,000 in September 

that was partially due to effects from Hurricane Florence. This month's 

data could be strongly impacted by the effects of Hurricane Michael, 

which hit land on October 10 in the middle of the survey week, so there 

is downside risk to forecasts. The unemployment rate is expected to hold 

steady at 3.7%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after solid 

gains in the previous three months, while the average workweek is 

expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month, but could show 

the impact of Hurricane Michael. The year/year rate for hourly earnings 

dipped to 2.8% in September but is likely to rebound in October on base 

effects from a 0.2% monthly decline in earnings in October 2017. 

Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                Sep18   Aug18   Jul18

 Trade Gap    -$53.5b  -$54.4b to -$51.4b             -- -$53.2b -$50.0b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen modestly 

to $53.5 billion in September from $53.2 billion in August. The advance 

estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $76.0 billion, 

as imports rose faster than exports. 

Factory Orders for September (percent change)                             

 Friday, November 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18  

 New Orders     +0.5%    +0.0% to +0.6%                 --  +2.3%  -0.5%

 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.5% in September. 

Durable goods orders rose by 0.8% in the month on a surprise increase in 

defense aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to dip on 

a decrease in energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation 

were up only 0.1%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are 

expected to be roughly flat.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]