US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Nov 19/17:06 EST Nov 19

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Housing Starts for October (annual rate, million) 

 Tuesday, November 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Starts    1.230m      1.180m to 1.267m                 -- 1.201m 1.268m 

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is 

expected to accelerate to a 1.230 million annual rate in October after a 

sharp September dip. The NAHB index rose slightly to 68 in October. As 

inventories remain tight, builders will likely lift output further. The 

pace of building permits is expected to slip to a 1.260 million annual 

rate after an uptick in the previous month after revision. Rebuilding 

following Hurricanes Florence and Michael should lift permits and starts 

in coming months. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 17 week                                

 Wednesday, November 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Nov10  Nov03

 Weekly Claims   215k     210k to 220k                  --   216k   214k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fell 

by 1,000 to a 215,000 level in the November 17 employment survey week 

after an increase of 2,000 to 216,000 level in the previous week. Claims 

were at a level of 210,000 in the October 13 employment survey week. The 

four-week moving average would fall by only 250 in the coming week as 

the 216,000 level in the October 20 rolls out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. The 

shorter reporting period due to Thanksgiving could result in more 

estimated state values than normal. 

Durable Goods Orders for October (percent change)

 Wednesday, November 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18 

 New Orders     -2.5%    -4.9% to -0.1%                 --  +0.7%  +4.7% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.3%    -0.3% to +0.9%                 --   Unch  +0.3%

     Comments: Durable goods are expected to fall by 2.5% in October 

after a revised 0.7% gain in September. Boeing reported 18 orders in 

October, down sharply from 65 orders in September, so transportation 

orders should be the key negative factor. Durable goods orders excluding 

transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.3%. 

Existing-home Sales for October (annual rate)                           

 Wednesday, November 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Home Resales     5.18m  5.10m to 5.25m                 --  5.15m  5.33m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 

5.18 million annual rate in October after falling further in September. 

Pending home sales rose by 0.5% in September, a small positive for 

existing home sales. 

Leading Indicators for October (percent change)

 Wednesday, November 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:

                 Median         Range                Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Leading Index    +0.1%    +0.0% to +0.1%               --  +0.5%  +0.4%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast rise slightly 

by 0.1% in October. Positive contributions are expected from consumer 

expectations and factory hours, but a decline in stock prices and rising 

initial claims should provide some offset. 

University of Michigan Survey for November (final)          

 Wednesday, November 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:

                Median        Range                 Nov18f Nov18p  Oct18

 Consumer Sent    98.3    97.9 to 98.5                  --   98.3   98.6

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 

at a reading of 98.3 in November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]