Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                   Median           Range          3Q18r   3Q18p    2Q18
 Productivity       +2.2%      +2.2% to +2.8%         --   +2.2%   +3.0% 
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.0%      +0.8% to +1.2%         --   +1.2%   -1.0%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be unrevised  from 
the 2.2% gain in the preliminary estimate, on a small upward revision to 
the output component. Unit labor cost growth is expected to be revised 
down to a 1.0% pace from the 1.2% gain previously reported. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November 
 Thursday, December 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 ISM NMI         58.9     57.5 to 60.0                  --   60.3   61.6
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to 
a reading of 58.9 in November after slipping to 60.3 in October. The 
Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 43.3 from 37.6 in October 
and the Dallas nonmanufacturing reading slipped to 11.4 from 14.1. The 
flash Markit Services index fell to 54.4 from 54.8 in October. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 1 week                                
 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Dec01  Nov24  Nov17
 Weekly Claims   225k      218k to 240k                 --   234k   224k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 9,000 to a 225,000 level in the December 1 week after an increase of 
10,000 to 234,000 level in the previous week, the highest level since 
May. The level of claims has been elevated above the prevailing trend in 
recent weeks, possibly due to seasonal adjustment difficulties related 
to the proximity of the Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving holidays. The 
four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the coming week as the 
214,000 level in the November 3 rolls out of the calculation, assuming 
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 
Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $)           
 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                Oct18   Sep18   Aug18
 Trade Gap     -$55.0   -$55.2 to -$53.5              -- -$54.0b -$53.3b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $55.0 
billion in October from $54.0 billion in September. The advance estimate 
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $77.2 billion, as exports fell 
and import rose. 
Factory Orders for October (percent change)                             
 Thursday, December 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18  
 New Orders     -2.0%    -2.2% to -1.9%                 --  +0.7%  +2.6%
 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  +0.4%  +0.4%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 2.0% in October. 
Durable goods orders fell by 4.4% in the month on a sharp drop in 
aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise on strong 
energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation were up only 
0.1%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are expected to 
decline. 
Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 
 Payrolls        190k      140k to 220k                --  +250k  +118k
 Private Jobs    190k      136k to 215k                --  +246k  +121k
 Jobless Rate    3.7%      3.7% to 3.8%                --   3.7%   3.7%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.4 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in 
November after a much stronger-than-expected 250,000 rise in October, a 
rebound from the previous month's weak reading. The unemployment rate is 
expected to hold steady at 3.7% for a third straight month. Hourly 
earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%, with the year/year rate likely to 
slip back from the 3.1% rate posted in October due to base effects. The 
average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours in October. 
University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)          
 Friday, December 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:
                Median        Range                 Dec18p  Nov18  Oct18
 Consumer Sent    97.4    95.0 to 98.0                  --   97.5   98.6
     Comment: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall slightly 
to a reading of 97.4 in early-December, helped by rising stock prices 
and lower gasoline price. 
Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   
 Friday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                   Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Oct18   Sep18   Aug18
 Cons Cred    +$15.0  +$13.0 to +$17.0                -- +$10.9b +$22.9b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in 
October after a smaller $10.9 billion gain in September. Retail sales 
were up 0.8% in October overall and were still up 0.7% excluding a 1.1% 
surge in motor vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth 
accelerated.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.