US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Housing Starts for November (annual rate, million) 

 Tuesday, December 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Starts    1.220m      1.200m to 1.239m                 -- 1.228m 1.210m 

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is 

expected to slow very slightly to a 1.220 million annual rate in 

November after a modest October rebound. The NAHB index fell sharply to 

60 in November from 68 in October. Soft demand will likely restrain home 

building in the short term. The pace of building permits is expected to 

decline further to a 1.253 million annual rate. Weather effects and the 

California wildfires should translate into increased homebuilding in the 

coming months. 

Existing-home Sales for November (annual rate)                           

 Wednesday, December 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Home Resales     5.17m  5.13m to 5.24m                 --  5.22m  5.15m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to fall back 

to a 5.17 million annual rate in November after rising to 5.22 million 

in October. Pending home sales plunged by 2.6% in October and are well 

below their year-ago levels, a negative indicator for already soft 

existing home sales. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 15 week                                

 Thursday, December 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Dec15  Dec08  Dec01

 Weekly Claims   225k     220k to 225k                  --   206k   233k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

significantly to a 225,000 reading in the December 15 employment survey 

week after a sharp decrease of 27,000 to 206,000 level in the previous 

week. Claims were at a level of 225,000 in the November 17 employment 

survey week. The prevalence of holidays in November and December make 

seasonal adjustment difficult at the end of the year. The four-week 

moving average would be unchanged in the coming week as the 225,000 

level in the November 17 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the 

MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for December (diffusion index)

 Thursday, December 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Phila Fed         15.0    14.0 to 16.0                 --   12.9   22.2

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to partially 

rebound to a reading of 15.0 in December after falling sharply to 12.9 

in November. 

Leading Indicators for November (percent change)

 Thursday, December 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:

                 Median         Range                Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Leading Index     Flat     Flat to Flat                --  +0.1%  +0.6%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to hold 

steady in November after a modest 0.1% gain in October. The stock market 

decline, a dip in confidence, and a jump in initial jobless claims are 

key negative factors. 

Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)

 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 

 New Orders      Flat    -0.6% to +2.0%                 --  -4.3%   Flat 

 Ex-Transport   +0.4%    -0.6% to +0.7%                 --  +0.2%  -0.5%

     Comments: Durable goods are expected to be unchanged in November 

after a revised 4.3% decline in October. Boeing reported 51 orders in 

November, up sharply from 18 orders in October, but seasonal adjustment 

issues could translate to another transportation decline. Durable goods 

orders excluding transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.4%. 

GDP for Third Quarter (third estimate)

 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  3Q18t  3Q18s   2Q18

 GDP            +3.5%    +3.5% to +3.6%                 --  +3.5%  +4.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.7%    +1.7% to +1.7%                 --  +1.7%  +3.0%

     Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 3.5% 

increase, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 

1.7% pace. Looking ahead, analysts see fourth quarter GDP growth 

accelerating from the third quarter. 

Personal Income for November (percent change)                          

 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2% 

 Spending       +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.4%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%

 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by only 0.3% in 

November after a 0.5% gain in October. Payrolls rose by only 155,000, 

hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and average weekly hours fell to 34.4 

hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.6% 

October gain, but with some upside risk. Total retail sales were up only 

0.2% in the month after a 1.1% October gain. Sales were also up 0.2% in 

November excluding a 0.2% gain in motor vehicle sales, but there were 

solid gains in most of the other categories, especially nonstore 

retailers. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and 

food services were up 0.9% after a 0.7% gain in October. The core PCE 

price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in November which would 

allow the year/year rate to tick to 1.9% from 1.8% in the previous 

month. Core prices were up only 0.1% month/month in November 2017. 

University of Michigan Survey for December (final)          

 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Dec18f Dec18p  Nov18

 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.5 to 97.5                  --   97.5   97.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 

down to a reading of 97.0 from 97.5 in November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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