US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 2 week                                

 Thursday, February 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan26  Jan19  Jan12

 Weekly Claims   220k     215k to 221k                  --   253k   200k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

back to a 220,000 level in the February 2 week after a surge of 53,000 

to a 253,000 level in the previous week, though it is not likely to 

payback all of the previous week's gains. The volatility in recent weeks 

can be largely attributed to seasonal adjustment issues around the 

holiday week, storms, teachers strikes, and the side effects of the 

government shutdown. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,000 

this week as the 216,000 level in the January 5 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, February 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Dec18   Nov18   Oct18

 Cons Cred    $16.5b   $15.0 to $18.0                 -- +$22.1b +$25.0b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.5 billion at 

an annual rate in December after solid gains in the previous two months.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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